Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Home Depot?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Home Depot (HD Quick QuoteHD - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 20 days from its next quarterly earnings release on November 14, 2023, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $3.82 a share.

HD has an Earnings ESP figure of +0.63%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $3.82 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.80. Home Depot is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

HD is just one of a large group of Retail and Wholesale stocks with a positive ESP figure. Wayfair (W Quick QuoteW - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Wayfair is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on November 1, 2023. W's Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.43 a share seven days from its next earnings release.

For Wayfair, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.44 is +2.88%.

HD and W's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>