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Here's Why Hormel Foods' (HRL) Stock Plummeted 32% YTD

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Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL - Free Report) operates amid industry-wide supply chain bottlenecks, marring its performance. The leading manufacturer and marketer of various meat and food products is seeing weakness in the International business.

Shares of the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) company have slumped 32% year to date compared with the industry’s 27.7% decline. The company’s stock has lagged the Zacks Consumer Staples’s drop of 14.3% during this time.

Let’s discuss this in detail.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Weak International Unit Hurts

Hormel Foods has been battling weakness in the International segment, hurting its top-line performance. In the third quarter of fiscal 2023, net sales in the segment declined 6% to $180.6 million, attributable to reduced branded export sales and lower results in China. The company’s net sales were $2,963.3 million, which fell 2.3% in the fiscal third quarter. The persistence of such trends is likely to keep putting pressure on Hormel Foods’ performance.

Supply-Chain Challenges

Hormel Foods continues to operate in a volatile, complex and high-cost environment. The company’s adjusted operating income was $286.8 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2023, 1.5% lower than last year. The downside can be attributed to supply-chain disruption because of the third-party logistics provider shutdown. The company saw impacts from shortages, additional logistic costs and escalated distressed inventory levels.

Road Ahead Looks Rough

Hormel Foods expects to witness continued weakness in the International segment, alongside earnings pressure from heightened competition in the Retail business. The company also expects overall consumer spending to remain under pressure in the United States due to the resumption of student loan payments.

Management expects fiscal 2023 net sales to be down 4% to flat year over year, reflecting to-date performance and expectations of raw material input costs in the fiscal fourth quarter. Fiscal 2023 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be $1.61-$1.67, down from $1.82 reported in the year-ago period. The bottom line is envisioned to decline year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter. 

Wrapping Up

Hormel Foods is on track with strategic growth drives, including the Go Forward initiative. The company is committed to strategic investments to boost its capacity. Management intends to strengthen its business on the back of strategic acquisitions.

Whether the upsides can help Hormel Foods stay afloat amid hurdles is yet to be seen.

Some Solid Picks

Post Holdings (POST - Free Report) , a consumer-packaged goods holding company, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). POST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 59.6% on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Post Holdings’ current fiscal year sales and earnings suggests growth of 13.2% and 189.9%, respectively, from the corresponding year-ago reported figures.

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM - Free Report) , which manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products, currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. SJM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.3% on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The J. M. Smucker’s current financial year earnings suggests growth of 8.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Celsius Holdings (CELH - Free Report) , which offers functional drinks and liquid supplements, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. CELH delivered an earnings surprise of 100% in the last reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ current fiscal-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 88.9% and 170.3%, respectively, from the year-ago reported numbers.


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