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Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2023 results, before the opening bell, on Nov 2.

Q3 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMR’s third-quarter sales is pegged at $706 million, suggesting an 18.8% fall from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $6.50 per share, indicating a year-over-year slump of 54.3%. Earnings estimates have moved down 19% in the past 30 days.

Q2 Performance

In the last reported quarter, Alpha Metallurgical witnessed a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues. Results were impacted by the temporary shutdown of production at Road Fork 52 mine in Wyoming County, West Virginia and the decline in metallurgical indices. The company however beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for both the metrics.

AMR has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.2%.

 

Factors to Note

Alpha Metallurgical recently provided updates on preliminary sales volumes and realizations for the third quarter of 2023, which can provide an indication of how the company is likely to fare in the to-be-reported quarter.

AMR stated that in addition to some weather-related problems, which caused vessel delays in the quarter, the company also experienced mechanical issues at DTA that hampered the ability to load and make coal shipments.

The company sold 4.2 tons of coal through the quarter compared with 4.1 tons in the third quarter of 2022. AMR added that it had sold some lower-priced tons from the development areas at new mines during the pricing trough early in the third quarter. This, along with lower-than-expected shipments, negatively impacted average realizations for the third quarter.

Net realized pricing for the Met segment was $154.73 per ton in the third quarter, lower than $184.31 in the third quarter of 2022. Net realization in the All Other category was $68.32 per ton in the third quarter compared with $109.27 per ton in the year-ago quarter.

Alpha Metallurgical has provided a preliminary sales number of $731.5 million for the Met segment for the third quarter of 2023, which indicates a 13% decline from the third quarter of 2022. Coal revenues for the quarter under review are at $739 million, 15% lower than $868 million in the year-ago quarter.

Lower sales, higher cost of coal sales owing to inefficiencies associated with the Slabcamp mine’s approaching end of life as well as further investments in employee wages are expected to have impacted earnings in the third quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alpha Metallurgical this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Alpha Metallurgical has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Price Performance

Shares of Alpha Metallurgical have gained 29.5% in the past year compared with the industry's 15.1 % growth.

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Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov 8, has an Earnings ESP of +2.96% and  a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold’s earnings for the third quarter is pegged at 10 cents per share. The company has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 31.7%.

CF Industries (CF - Free Report) , expected to release earnings on Nov 1, has an Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries’ earnings for the third quarter is pegged at 94 cents per share. CF has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.8%.

Innospec (IOSP - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Nov 7, currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IOSP’s earnings for the third quarter is pegged at $1.45 per share. The company has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.2%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

 

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