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Semis: 5 Factors Suggesting the Correction Is Over
Following a beating in 2022, semiconductor stocks stormed back in the first half of 2023 before pulling back over the past few months. Below are 5 reasons the worst is over for semiconductors:
Historical Seasonality Trends
Equity investors often utilize historical seasonality trends as a valuable tool to gain an edge in the market. By analyzing past price movements and patterns specific to certain times of the year, investors can identify recurring trends in stock and industry performance. It's difficult to find a more robust and reliable historical seasonality trend than the semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index was higher 80% of the time over the past twenty years for an average gain of 3.9%. Select individual names do even better in November. For example, Advanced Micro Devices has been higher 8 of the past 10 Novembers for an average gain of 15.9%. Meanwhile, industry group peer Nvidia has racked up gains of 9.1% on average over the same time.
Strong Earnings
Thus far this earnings season, semiconductor earnings are mixed. For example, ON Semiconductor plunged more than 20% after reporting disappointing earnings. That said, industry leaders such as AMD and Intel have produced impressive results.
AI Investment Is Proliferating
Earlier this week,Arista Networks, a leading provider of cloud networking solutions, reported blockbuster earnings growth of 46% year-over-year. Arista's earnings prove that the AI revolution is still in the early innings because as artificial intelligence technologies continue to advance, the demand for high-performance, low-latency networking infrastructure rises. Semiconductors are another group of stocks that directly benefit from growth in AI.
End of Year Institutional "Window Dressing"
On Wall Street, the term window dressing refers to the practice where institutional money managers make their portfolios appear more attractive or healthier than they actually are to clients, especially before reporting periods like quarterly and annual statements are due. To dress up their portfolios, many managers will sell laggards and buy into high-performing ones just before the reporting date.
By showcasing these stronger assets in their reports, fund managers aim to impress clients by creating a false impression of the fund's performance. In other words, the manager shows that the fund did not miss out on the year's big winners. With the Semiconductor Index ETF up ~40% year-to-date (and many individual names like NVDA up more), institutional investors are likely to pile into semiconductors into year-end for window dressing purposes.
Bullish Technicals
Though many investors have become bearish on semiconductors after the latest correction, the longer-term chart patterns show signs of life. For example, industry leader AMD is finding support at its rising 200-day moving average and is poised to break a downtrend line going back to June.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +6.2 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +46.4%, +49.5% and +55.2% per year. Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia, ON Semiconductor and Arista Networks
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – November 3, 2023 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Advanced Micro Devices (AMD - Free Report) , Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , ON Semiconductor (ON - Free Report) , Intel (INTC - Free Report) and Arista Networks (ANET - Free Report) .
Semis: 5 Factors Suggesting the Correction Is Over
Following a beating in 2022, semiconductor stocks stormed back in the first half of 2023 before pulling back over the past few months. Below are 5 reasons the worst is over for semiconductors:
Historical Seasonality Trends
Equity investors often utilize historical seasonality trends as a valuable tool to gain an edge in the market. By analyzing past price movements and patterns specific to certain times of the year, investors can identify recurring trends in stock and industry performance. It's difficult to find a more robust and reliable historical seasonality trend than the semiconductor stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index was higher 80% of the time over the past twenty years for an average gain of 3.9%. Select individual names do even better in November. For example, Advanced Micro Devices has been higher 8 of the past 10 Novembers for an average gain of 15.9%. Meanwhile, industry group peer Nvidia has racked up gains of 9.1% on average over the same time.
Strong Earnings
Thus far this earnings season, semiconductor earnings are mixed. For example, ON Semiconductor plunged more than 20% after reporting disappointing earnings. That said, industry leaders such as AMD and Intel have produced impressive results.
AI Investment Is Proliferating
Earlier this week,Arista Networks, a leading provider of cloud networking solutions, reported blockbuster earnings growth of 46% year-over-year. Arista's earnings prove that the AI revolution is still in the early innings because as artificial intelligence technologies continue to advance, the demand for high-performance, low-latency networking infrastructure rises. Semiconductors are another group of stocks that directly benefit from growth in AI.
End of Year Institutional "Window Dressing"
On Wall Street, the term window dressing refers to the practice where institutional money managers make their portfolios appear more attractive or healthier than they actually are to clients, especially before reporting periods like quarterly and annual statements are due. To dress up their portfolios, many managers will sell laggards and buy into high-performing ones just before the reporting date.
By showcasing these stronger assets in their reports, fund managers aim to impress clients by creating a false impression of the fund's performance. In other words, the manager shows that the fund did not miss out on the year's big winners. With the Semiconductor Index ETF up ~40% year-to-date (and many individual names like NVDA up more), institutional investors are likely to pile into semiconductors into year-end for window dressing purposes.
Bullish Technicals
Though many investors have become bearish on semiconductors after the latest correction, the longer-term chart patterns show signs of life. For example, industry leader AMD is finding support at its rising 200-day moving average and is poised to break a downtrend line going back to June.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +6.2 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +46.4%, +49.5% and +55.2% per year. Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performancefor information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.