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J&J (JNJ) Announces 2024 and Long-Term Financial Outlook

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) announced sales and earnings growth expectations for 2024 and the 2025-2030 period.

2024 will be the first full year for J&J after it spun off its Consumer Health segment into a newly listed company called Kenvue (KVUE - Free Report) . With the complete separation of the Consumer Health segment, J&J has now become a two-sector company focused on the Pharmaceutical and MedTech fields. Kenvue operates as a separate and fully independent company.

Sales Guidance

In 2024, J&J expects operational sales growth in the range of 5-6%, driven by both its Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments. In 2025, operational sales are expected to grow around 3% due to the expected launch of biosimilar versions of its blockbuster immunology drug, Stelara, in the year. Stelara recorded sales of more than $8 billion in the first nine months of 2023.

J&J expects sales to pick up thereafter, expecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5-7% for the 2025-2030 period.

Earnings Guidance

Adjusted earnings are expected in the range of $10.55-$10.75 per share in 2024, which represents operational growth of 7.3% at the mid-point. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at $10.79 per share.

The 2024 guidance reflects a 15 cents dilutive impact of the acquisition of Laminar. In November, J&J completed the acquisition of Laminar, a private medical device company focused on eliminating the left atrial appendage in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

J&J’s stock has declined 10.3% so far this year against an increase of 5.4% for the industry.

 

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Outlook for Innovative Medicine Unit

J&J’s Innovative Medicines segment is performing above market levels despite currency headwinds and the impact of biosimilar and generic competition on sales of some key drugs like Remicade and Zytiga. In the first nine months of 2023, sales rose 4.4% on an organic basis. Growth in 2023 is being driven by existing products like Darzalex, Tremfya, Erleada, Invega Sustenna and Uptravi, and also continued uptake of new launches, including Spravato, Carvykti and Tecvayli. The positive trend is expected to continue in 2024.

In its Innovative Medicine unit, J&J expects operational sales to witness a CAGR of 5-7% for the 2025-2030 period. It believes 10 of its products have the potential to deliver peak non-risk adjusted operational sales of $5 billion, including new cancer drugs like Talvey and Tecvayli and pipeline candidate JNJ-2113 for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.

As regards its pipeline, J&J expects to launch 20 new drugs and more than 50 line extensions of approved medicines by 2030.

Outlook for MedTech Unit

In the MedTech segment, operational sales are expected to grow in the upper range of its market, which is projected to grow 5-7% through 2027. One-third of its sales are expected to come from new products through 2027.

Though sales in the MedTech segment were hurt due to a decline in elective surgical procedures in the pandemic years, sales have been improving since 2022 due to recovery in surgical procedures and the segment’s enhanced competitiveness from new product launches.

Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider

J&J currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

 

 

Some better-ranked drug/biotech companies worth considering are Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) and Puma Biotech (PBYI - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Estimates for Novo Nordisk’s 2023 earnings per share have increased from $2.51 to $2.62 over the past 60 days. Estimates for 2024 have jumped from $2.95 per share to $3.07 over the same timeframe. NVO’s stock has surged 47.2% year to date.

Earnings of Novo Nordisk beat estimates in two of the last four quarters, missed in one and matched estimates in one, delivering an earnings surprise of 0.58% on average.

Estimates for Puma Biotech’s 2023 earnings per share have increased from 67 cents to 72 cents over the past 60 days. Estimates for 2024 have jumped from 55 cents per share to 64 cents over the same timeframe. PBYI’s stock has declined 12.1% year to date.

Earnings of Puma Biotech beat estimates in three of the last four quarters, missed in one, delivering an earnings surprise of 76.55% on average.

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