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Why Is Axsome (AXSM) Up 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM - Free Report) . Shares have added about 8.7% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Axsome due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Axsome’s Q3 Loss Widens, Revenues Surpass Estimates

Axsome incurred an adjusted loss $1.32 per share in the third quarter of 2023, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.24. AXSM had reported a loss of $1.07 per share in the year-ago period.

However, the company’s revenues of $57.8 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $55 million. AXSM had recorded revenues of $16.8 million in the year-ago period.

Quarter in Detail

Total revenues consist of product revenues from Sunosi, Auvelity and royalty revenues.

Net product revenues were $57.1 million in the quarter compared with $16.8 million in the year-ago period. The figure beat our model estimate of $52.5 million.

Auvelity recorded sales of $37.7 million, up 36% from the previous quarter’s level, due to the products’ timely launch. There were no Auvelity sales in the comparable period of 2022. Sales of the drug beat our model estimate of $32.8 million.

Notably, 69,000 prescriptions were recorded for Auvelity in the reported quarter, reflecting a sequential increase of 30%.

Sunosi’s net product sales were $20.1 million, up 20% from the year-ago quarter’s level. Total prescriptions for Sunosi in the United States grew 16% year over year and 5% sequentially.

Royalty revenues totaled $0.7 million for the quarter, reflecting royalties Sunosi sales.

Research and development expenses (including stock-based compensation) amounted to $28.8 million, up almost 93.2% from the year-ago quarter’s level. The increase was due to higher costs associated with clinical studies, especially the label expansion study of Sunosi, as well as higher personnel and post-marketing commitments for Sunosi and Auvelity.

Selling, general and administrative expenses (including stock-based compensation) totaled $83.2 million, up almost 103.4% year over year. The significant increase was due to higher commercial activities for Sunosi and Auvelity.

As of Sep 30, 2023, Axsome had cash and cash equivalents worth $416.6 million compared with $437.1 million as of Jun 30, 2023.

2023 Guidance

Management believes that its cash balance of $416.6 million (as of September 2023-end) is enough to fund future operations into cash flow positivity.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

VGM Scores

Currently, Axsome has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Axsome has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Axsome is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, Blueprint Medicines (BPMC - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 20.9%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2023 more than a month ago.

Blueprint Medicines reported revenues of $56.57 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -14.3%. EPS of -$2.20 for the same period compares with -$2.23 a year ago.

Blueprint Medicines is expected to post a loss of $2.02 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +23.8%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

Blueprint Medicines has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.


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