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Morgan Stanley (MS) Q4 Earnings Beat, Provisions Decline Y/Y

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Morgan Stanley’s (MS - Free Report) fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of $1.13 per share handily surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05. The bottom line compared unfavorably with $1.26 per share earned in the prior-year quarter.

After considering the FDIC special assessment charge and legal charges related to a specific matter, earnings per share (GAAP) was 85 cents in the reported quarter.

Shares of the company gained 1.3% in the pre-market trading on better-than-expected results. However, a full day’s trading performance will depict a clearer picture.

Morgan Stanley has posted a decent trading performance in the quarter. Both fixed-income trading and equity trading revenues increased 1% year over year.

Also, the performance of the investment banking (“IB”) business was decent. While equity underwriting fees declined 1% from the prior-year quarter, fixed income underwriting income was up 25%. Advisory fees declined 1%. Therefore, total IB fees (in the Institutional Securities division) increased 5% from the prior-year quarter.

A significant decline in provisions in the fourth quarter was another tailwind for Morgan Stanley.

However, despite a 52% increase in interest income, the company’s net interest income (NII) declined on substantially higher interest expenses.

Moreover, an increase in total non-interest expenses was a headwind in the quarter.

Net income applicable to common shareholders (GAAP) was $1.38 billion, down 35% from the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the metric was $1.67 billion.

For 2023, earnings per share (GAAP) was $5.18, down 16% from 2022. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings was pegged at $5.40. Net income applicable to common shareholders was $8.53 billion, down 19% from the previous year. Our estimate for the metric was $8.82 billion.

Revenues Improve, Expenses Rise

Quarterly net revenues were $12.90 billion, up 1% from the prior-year quarter. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.70 billion.

For 2023, net revenues were $54.14 billion, up 1% year over year. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $53.87 billion.

Quarterly NII was $1.90 billion, down 18% year over year. We had projected NII of $1.89 billion for the fourth quarter.

Total non-interest revenues of $11 billion increased 5% year over year. Our estimate for the metric was $10.68 billion.

Total non-interest expenses were $10.80 billion, up 9% year over year. Our estimate for expenses was $9.84 billion.

Provision for credit losses was $3 million in the fourth quarter, down from $87 million in the prior-year quarter.

Quarterly Segmental Performance

Institutional Securities: Pre-tax income was $408 million, down 45% from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the same was $481.9 million.

Net revenues were $4.94 billion, up 3% year over year. The upside resulted from increased fixed-income underwriting revenues, and equity and fixed-income trading revenues. We had projected total revenues of $4.69 billion.

Wealth Management: Pre-tax income totaled $1.43 billion, down 22% year over year. Our estimate for the same was $1.83 billion.

Net revenues were $6.65 billion, up marginally year over year, driven by higher asset management revenues and transactional revenues. We had projected total revenues of $6.57 billion.

Total client assets were $5.13 trillion as of Dec 31, 2023, up 22% year over year. We had projected the metric to be $4.81 trillion.

Investment Management: Pre-tax income was $265 million, jumping 24% from the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for the same was $241.4 million.

Net revenues were $1.46 billion, up marginally year over year. The improvement is attributable to a rise in asset management and related fees. We had projected total revenues of $1.44 billion.

As of Dec 31, 2023, total assets under management or supervision were $1.46 trillion, up 12% from Dec 31, 2022. Our estimate for the metric was $1.52 trillion.

Capital Position Weakens

As of Dec 31, 2023, the book value per share was $55.50, up from $54.55 in the corresponding period of 2022. The tangible book value per share was $40.89, up from $40.06 as of Dec 31, 2022.

Morgan Stanley’s Tier 1 capital ratio (advanced approach) was 17.4% compared with 17.6% in the year-ago quarter. The common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 15.4%, down from 15.6% a year ago.

Share Repurchase Update

In the reported quarter, Morgan Stanley repurchased 17 million shares for $1.30 billion.

Our View

Elevated expenses due to investments in franchises will likely continue to hurt MS’s profits. Uncertainty about the performance of the capital markets makes us apprehensive. Yet, the company’s increased focus on the wealth management business will likely keep aiding revenues.

Morgan Stanley Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Morgan Stanley Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Morgan Stanley price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Morgan Stanley Quote

Currently, Morgan Stanley carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Performance of Major Banks

Bank of New York Mellon Corporation’s (BK - Free Report) fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of $1.28 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.12. However, the bottom line reflects a fall of 1.5% from the prior-year quarter.

BK’s results were aided by a rise in net interest revenues and fee revenues. The assets under management balance witnessed a rise, which was another positive for BNY Mellon. However, higher expenses hurt the results to some extent.

Bank of America’s (BAC - Free Report) fourth-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of 70 cents per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. The bottom line compared unfavorably with 85 cents earned in the prior-year quarter.

After considering the FDIC special assessment charge of $2.1 billion and the Bloomberg Short-Term Bank Yield Index cessation charge of $1.6 billion, earnings per share was 35 cents.

Despite modest loan growth and high interest rates, BofA recorded a lower-than-expected net interest income, given the rise in funding costs. Also, BAC witnessed a slight decline in deposit balances as customers continued to rotate toward high-yielding investment options. The total investment banking fees (in the Global Banking division) fell 2% year over year due to weakness in advisory fees, while a solid underwriting performance offered some support.


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