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CSX Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Jan 24, after market close.

CSX has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and meeting twice, the average beat being 4.64%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for CSX this earnings season.

CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

CSX Corporation price-eps-surprise | CSX Corporation Quote

Q4 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.65 billion, indicating a 2.2% decline from the past year's reported figure. The top line is likely to have been weighed down by reduced supplemental revenues, a decline in export coal benchmark prices, and a decrease in intermodal and trucking volumes. Our estimates for fourth-quarter Coal, Intermodal and Trucking revenues indicate declines of 1.5%, 18% and 9.1% from the year-ago reported figures.

On the flip side, supply-chain disruptions, including labor and equipment shortages, are expected to have hurt its quarterly performance. Rising fuel expenses have been bothering the company’s bottom line. CSX’s high capital expenditure is anticipated to have further impeded its bottom line. However, the company's cost-cut approach is expected to have cushioned the bottom line to some extent in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised downward by 2.2% in the past 90 days.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CSX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CSX has an Earnings ESP of -0.46% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Highlights of Q3

CSX's third-quarter 2023 earnings per share of 42 cents met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the bottom line declined 19.2% year over year. Total revenues of $3,572 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,563 million. The top line decreased 8.3% year over year due to lower fuel prices, reduced intermodal storage revenues, a decline in export coal benchmark prices and a dip in intermodal volumes.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on their fourth-quarter 2023 earnings.

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +43.10% and a Zacks Rank #2. AAL will release results on Jan 25.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings has been revised upward by more than 100% in the past 90 days. AAL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 23.83%, on average.

Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.71% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. CPA will release results on Feb 7. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPA’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings has been revised upward by 5.1% in the past 90 days. CPA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.81%, on average.

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation, operating as Wabtec Corporation (WAB - Free Report) , has an Earnings ESP of +0.85% and a Zacks Rank #2. WAB will release results on Feb 14.

WAB has an expected earnings growth rate of 20.77% for fourth-quarter 2023. WAB delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.11%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings has improved 3.3% over the past 90 days.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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