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The U.S. steel giant surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.3%, on average. It posted an earnings surprise of 7.3% in the last reported quarter. Lower earnings across the company’s segments and weaker selling prices are likely to have impacted its fourth-quarter results.
Nucor’s shares are up 1.7% over a year, compared with the industry’s 1.3% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Zacks Model
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nucor this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Nucor is +0.12%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $2.83. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Nucor currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What do the Estimates Say?
Nucor, last month, issued its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter. It anticipates fourth-quarter earnings in the range of $2.75-$2.85 per share, which indicates a decline on both sequential and year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter consolidated revenues for Nucor is currently pegged at $7,563.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13.3%.
A Few Factors to Watch
Lower profitability across the company’s operating segments due to weaker pricing and volumes is expected to have hurt its performance in the quarter to be reported. Nucor, in December, said that it sees lower earnings in the steel mills segment in the fourth quarter due to the downside in realized pricing, which is anticipated to be most pronounced at sheet and plate mills.
Our estimate for sales tons to outside customers for steel mills is pegged at 4,525,000 tons for the fourth quarter, suggesting a decline from 4,578,000 tons reported in the prior quarter.
Nucor also expects sequentially lower earnings in the steel products segment in the fourth quarter due to weaker average selling prices across most product groups within the segment and reduced volumes. Earnings in the raw materials segment are also projected to decline in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower pricing for raw materials and planned outages at the company's DRI facilities.
Meanwhile, U.S. steel prices rebounded during the fourth quarter with the benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices breaking above $1,000 per short ton in December, driven by U.S. steel mills’ price hike actions, supply tightness and a recovery in demand. The recovery is also being supported by the resolution to the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike. Notably, the UAW reached a deal with the Detroit Big Three in November 2023, ending the roughly six-week strike that weighed on the U.S. steel industry due to a slowdown in automotive demand.
Despite the rebound in HRC prices, weaker selling prices are likely to have impacted Nucor’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for fourth-quarter average sales price per ton for the company’s steel mills unit stands at $995, suggesting a 9.7% year-over-year decline a 10.7% sequential decrease.
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
The consensus estimate for CF’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $1.56.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb 15, has an Earnings ESP of +11.96% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The consensus mark for AEM’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 46 cents.
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 14, has an Earnings ESP of +25.00%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross' earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 9 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Image: Bigstock
Will Weaker Steel Prices Hurt Nucor's (NUE) Earnings in Q4?
Nucor Corporation (NUE - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2023 results after the closing bell on Jan 29.
The U.S. steel giant surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.3%, on average. It posted an earnings surprise of 7.3% in the last reported quarter. Lower earnings across the company’s segments and weaker selling prices are likely to have impacted its fourth-quarter results.
Nucor’s shares are up 1.7% over a year, compared with the industry’s 1.3% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Zacks Model
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nucor this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Nucor is +0.12%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $2.83. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Nucor currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
What do the Estimates Say?
Nucor, last month, issued its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter. It anticipates fourth-quarter earnings in the range of $2.75-$2.85 per share, which indicates a decline on both sequential and year-over-year basis.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter consolidated revenues for Nucor is currently pegged at $7,563.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13.3%.
A Few Factors to Watch
Lower profitability across the company’s operating segments due to weaker pricing and volumes is expected to have hurt its performance in the quarter to be reported. Nucor, in December, said that it sees lower earnings in the steel mills segment in the fourth quarter due to the downside in realized pricing, which is anticipated to be most pronounced at sheet and plate mills.
Our estimate for sales tons to outside customers for steel mills is pegged at 4,525,000 tons for the fourth quarter, suggesting a decline from 4,578,000 tons reported in the prior quarter.
Nucor also expects sequentially lower earnings in the steel products segment in the fourth quarter due to weaker average selling prices across most product groups within the segment and reduced volumes. Earnings in the raw materials segment are also projected to decline in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower pricing for raw materials and planned outages at the company's DRI facilities.
Meanwhile, U.S. steel prices rebounded during the fourth quarter with the benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices breaking above $1,000 per short ton in December, driven by U.S. steel mills’ price hike actions, supply tightness and a recovery in demand. The recovery is also being supported by the resolution to the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike. Notably, the UAW reached a deal with the Detroit Big Three in November 2023, ending the roughly six-week strike that weighed on the U.S. steel industry due to a slowdown in automotive demand.
Despite the rebound in HRC prices, weaker selling prices are likely to have impacted Nucor’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for fourth-quarter average sales price per ton for the company’s steel mills unit stands at $995, suggesting a 9.7% year-over-year decline a 10.7% sequential decrease.
Nucor Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Nucor Corporation price-eps-surprise | Nucor Corporation Quote
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Feb 14, has an Earnings ESP of +1.26% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for CF’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $1.56.
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Feb 15, has an Earnings ESP of +11.96% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The consensus mark for AEM’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 46 cents.
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 14, has an Earnings ESP of +25.00%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross' earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 9 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.