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Tesla (TSLA) Q4 Earnings Fall Short of Estimates, Decline Y/Y
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Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) came up with a disappointing fourth-quarter 2023 show, missing both earnings and revenue estimates. This marked the second earnings miss in a row for the electric vehicle (EV) behemoth, following 10 straight quarters of beat. The company also cautioned that its vehicle volume growth rate for 2024 is expected to be noticeably lower than in 2023. Following the comprehensive miss and muted 2024 expectations, shares of Tesla slid 5.9% in after-hours trading.
Fourth-quarter earnings per share of 71 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 75 cents and also declined from the year-ago figure of $1.19. Total revenues of $25.17 billion also lagged the consensus mark of $25.94 billion but inched up 3% year over year.
Tesla’s fourth-quarter production totaled 494,989 units (476,777 Model 3/Y, and 18,212 other models), up 13% year over year, and surpassed our estimate of 481,420 units. The company delivered 484,507 vehicles, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 20% and topping our estimate of 476,620 units. The Model 3/Y registered deliveries of 461,538 vehicles, marking year-over-year growth of 19% and outpacing our projection by 3,646 units.
Total automotive revenues of $21,563 million were up 1% year over year but lagged our estimate of $22,385 million. The reported figure also included $433 million from the sale of regulatory credits for electric vehicles, which decreased 7% year over year. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $20,630 million, missing our projection of $21,468 million on lower-than-expected ASPs.
Automotive gross profit came in at $4,065 million. Automotive gross margin came in at 18.8%, down from 25.9% reported in fourth-quarter 2022 but topping our forecast of 18.4%. This can be attributed to lower-than-expected cost of automotive sales. The metric came in at 17,498 million, below our projection of 18,273 million.Tesla’s operating margin declined 964 basis points year over year to 7.6% in the quarter under discussion and also lagged our estimate of 7.9%.
Energy Generation and Storage revenues came in at $1,438 million in fourth-quarter 2023, higher than the year-ago quarter’s figure of $1,310 million but lagging our estimate of $1,591 million. Notably, energy storage deployments came in at 3.2 GWh, falling short of our projection of 4.1 GWh. Solar deployments declined both on a sequential and yearly basis amid high interest rates. The metric came in at 41 MW, significantly missing our forecast of 90MW.
Services and Other revenues were $2,166 million, up 27.3% year over year, but missed our estimate of $2,203 million. Supercharging, part sales, used vehicle sales and merchandise sales drove growth on a year-over-year basis.
Financials
Tesla had cash/cash equivalents/investments of $29,094 million as of Dec 31, 2023, compared with $22,185 million on Dec 31, 2022. Long-term debt and finance leases, net of the current portion, totaled $2,857 million, up from $1,597 million on Dec 31, 2022.
Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $4,370 million in fourth-quarter 2023. Capital expenditure totaled $2,306 million in the quarter under review. Tesla generated a free cash flow of $2,064 million during the reported quarter, which rose from $1,420 million generated in the year-ago period.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMC’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 14.8% and 35%, respectively. The consensus mark for fiscal 2024 and 2025 EPS have moved north by 9 cents and 19 cents, respectively, over the past 30 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GT’s 2024 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 3% and 2,152.6%, respectively. The consensus mark for 2024 EPS has moved north by 15 cents, respectively, over the past seven days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASEKY’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 3.5% and 236%, respectively. The consensus mark for fiscal 2024 and 2025 EPS have moved north by 28 cents and 41 cents, respectively, over the past 60 days.
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Tesla (TSLA) Q4 Earnings Fall Short of Estimates, Decline Y/Y
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) came up with a disappointing fourth-quarter 2023 show, missing both earnings and revenue estimates. This marked the second earnings miss in a row for the electric vehicle (EV) behemoth, following 10 straight quarters of beat. The company also cautioned that its vehicle volume growth rate for 2024 is expected to be noticeably lower than in 2023. Following the comprehensive miss and muted 2024 expectations, shares of Tesla slid 5.9% in after-hours trading.
Fourth-quarter earnings per share of 71 cents missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 75 cents and also declined from the year-ago figure of $1.19. Total revenues of $25.17 billion also lagged the consensus mark of $25.94 billion but inched up 3% year over year.
Tesla, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Key Takeaways
Tesla’s fourth-quarter production totaled 494,989 units (476,777 Model 3/Y, and 18,212 other models), up 13% year over year, and surpassed our estimate of 481,420 units. The company delivered 484,507 vehicles, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 20% and topping our estimate of 476,620 units. The Model 3/Y registered deliveries of 461,538 vehicles, marking year-over-year growth of 19% and outpacing our projection by 3,646 units.
Total automotive revenues of $21,563 million were up 1% year over year but lagged our estimate of $22,385 million. The reported figure also included $433 million from the sale of regulatory credits for electric vehicles, which decreased 7% year over year. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $20,630 million, missing our projection of $21,468 million on lower-than-expected ASPs.
Automotive gross profit came in at $4,065 million. Automotive gross margin came in at 18.8%, down from 25.9% reported in fourth-quarter 2022 but topping our forecast of 18.4%. This can be attributed to lower-than-expected cost of automotive sales. The metric came in at 17,498 million, below our projection of 18,273 million.Tesla’s operating margin declined 964 basis points year over year to 7.6% in the quarter under discussion and also lagged our estimate of 7.9%.
Energy Generation and Storage revenues came in at $1,438 million in fourth-quarter 2023, higher than the year-ago quarter’s figure of $1,310 million but lagging our estimate of $1,591 million. Notably, energy storage deployments came in at 3.2 GWh, falling short of our projection of 4.1 GWh. Solar deployments declined both on a sequential and yearly basis amid high interest rates. The metric came in at 41 MW, significantly missing our forecast of 90MW.
Services and Other revenues were $2,166 million, up 27.3% year over year, but missed our estimate of $2,203 million. Supercharging, part sales, used vehicle sales and merchandise sales drove growth on a year-over-year basis.
Financials
Tesla had cash/cash equivalents/investments of $29,094 million as of Dec 31, 2023, compared with $22,185 million on Dec 31, 2022. Long-term debt and finance leases, net of the current portion, totaled $2,857 million, up from $1,597 million on Dec 31, 2022.
Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $4,370 million in fourth-quarter 2023. Capital expenditure totaled $2,306 million in the quarter under review. Tesla generated a free cash flow of $2,064 million during the reported quarter, which rose from $1,420 million generated in the year-ago period.
Zacks Rank & Other Key Picks
Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
A few other top-ranked players in the auto space include Honda (HMC - Free Report) , Goodyear Tire (GT - Free Report) and Aisin Seiki (ASEKY - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMC’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 14.8% and 35%, respectively. The consensus mark for fiscal 2024 and 2025 EPS have moved north by 9 cents and 19 cents, respectively, over the past 30 days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GT’s 2024 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 3% and 2,152.6%, respectively. The consensus mark for 2024 EPS has moved north by 15 cents, respectively, over the past seven days.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASEKY’s fiscal 2024 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 3.5% and 236%, respectively. The consensus mark for fiscal 2024 and 2025 EPS have moved north by 28 cents and 41 cents, respectively, over the past 60 days.