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AbbVie (ABBV) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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AbbVie (ABBV - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 2, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.15%.
Factors to Consider
AbbVie’s top line is expected to have been driven by sales of new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which registered strong growth in the past few quarters. The upside can be attributed to label expansions of both drugs to allow use in new patient populations in the past few quarters. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Skyrizi are pegged at $2.41 billion and $2.38 billion, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Rinvoq are pegged at $1.19 billion and $1.15 billion, respectively.
Growth in Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales is expected to partially make up for the fall in sales of the flagship drug Humira, which lost exclusivity in the United States last year. Several companies, like Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Samsung Bioepis and Sandoz, have launched Humira biosimilars. These are significantly eroding sales, which are likely to persist in the upcoming quarters. The drug already lost exclusivity in ex-U.S. territories following the launch of generics in 2018.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humira sales is pegged at $3.18 billion, while our model estimate for the same stands at around $3.19 billion.
In the hematologic oncology segment, AbbVie markets two drugs, Imbruvica and Venclexta, in partnership with J&J and Roche, respectively.
We expect J&J-partnered Imbruvica sales to decline due to novel oral therapies hurting the drug’s sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $853 million and $836 million, respectively.
Roche-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to rise as new patient starts are expected to improve. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $581 million and $576 million, respectively.
In the aesthetics franchise, we expect overall sales to rise slightly as we expect a slight recovery in demand for Botox and Juvederm sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for aesthetics product sales are pegged at $1.35 billion and $1.36 billion, respectively.
Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown strong growth in recent quarters, with sales likely to be driven by the recently approved migraine drugs — Ubrelvy and Qulipta. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate suggest neuroscience product sales to be pegged at $2.11 billion.
Investors are likely to forward questions regarding updates on new product launches.
Key Development in Q4
During fourth-quarter 2023, AbbVie announced two back-to-back acquisitions — Cerevel Therapeutics for $8.7 billion and ImmunoGen for $10.1 billion. Through these two deals, the company expects to strengthen its neuroscience and oncology pipeline, respectively. Both transactions are expected to be completed in mid-2024.
Investors are likely to raise questions regarding management’s future plans for the products that will be added through these acquisitions.
Earnings Surprise History
AbbVie’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.49%, on average.
In the past year, AbbVie’s shares have gained 10.9% year to date compared with the industry’s 18.9% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AbbVie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: AbbVie has an Earnings ESP of -0.97%. The Most Accurate Estimate of $2.76 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.79.
Here are some biotech/large-cap stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.17% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has gained 2.1% in the past year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AZN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.30%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 8.
BioMarin (BMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.45% and a Zacks Rank #3.
BioMarin’s stock has lost 20.0% in the past year. BioMarin beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing out on one occasion. BMRN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.68%, on average.
Merck (MRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +23.45% and a Zacks Rank #3.
In the past year, Merck’s stock has risen 14.3%. Merck beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. MRK delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.80%, on average. Merck is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 1, before market open.
Image: Bigstock
AbbVie (ABBV) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
AbbVie (ABBV - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 2, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.15%.
Factors to Consider
AbbVie’s top line is expected to have been driven by sales of new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which registered strong growth in the past few quarters. The upside can be attributed to label expansions of both drugs to allow use in new patient populations in the past few quarters. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Skyrizi are pegged at $2.41 billion and $2.38 billion, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for Rinvoq are pegged at $1.19 billion and $1.15 billion, respectively.
Growth in Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales is expected to partially make up for the fall in sales of the flagship drug Humira, which lost exclusivity in the United States last year. Several companies, like Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Samsung Bioepis and Sandoz, have launched Humira biosimilars. These are significantly eroding sales, which are likely to persist in the upcoming quarters. The drug already lost exclusivity in ex-U.S. territories following the launch of generics in 2018.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humira sales is pegged at $3.18 billion, while our model estimate for the same stands at around $3.19 billion.
In the hematologic oncology segment, AbbVie markets two drugs, Imbruvica and Venclexta, in partnership with J&J and Roche, respectively.
We expect J&J-partnered Imbruvica sales to decline due to novel oral therapies hurting the drug’s sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $853 million and $836 million, respectively.
Roche-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to rise as new patient starts are expected to improve. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimates for the drug’s sales are pegged at $581 million and $576 million, respectively.
In the aesthetics franchise, we expect overall sales to rise slightly as we expect a slight recovery in demand for Botox and Juvederm sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for aesthetics product sales are pegged at $1.35 billion and $1.36 billion, respectively.
Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown strong growth in recent quarters, with sales likely to be driven by the recently approved migraine drugs — Ubrelvy and Qulipta. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate suggest neuroscience product sales to be pegged at $2.11 billion.
Investors are likely to forward questions regarding updates on new product launches.
Key Development in Q4
During fourth-quarter 2023, AbbVie announced two back-to-back acquisitions — Cerevel Therapeutics for $8.7 billion and ImmunoGen for $10.1 billion. Through these two deals, the company expects to strengthen its neuroscience and oncology pipeline, respectively. Both transactions are expected to be completed in mid-2024.
Investors are likely to raise questions regarding management’s future plans for the products that will be added through these acquisitions.
Earnings Surprise History
AbbVie’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.49%, on average.
AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
AbbVie Inc. price-eps-surprise | AbbVie Inc. Quote
In the past year, AbbVie’s shares have gained 10.9% year to date compared with the industry’s 18.9% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AbbVie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: AbbVie has an Earnings ESP of -0.97%. The Most Accurate Estimate of $2.76 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.79.
Zacks Rank: AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stock to Consider
Here are some biotech/large-cap stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.17% and a Zacks Rank #3.
AstraZeneca’s stock has gained 2.1% in the past year. AstraZeneca beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. AZN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.30%, on average. AstraZeneca is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 8.
BioMarin (BMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.45% and a Zacks Rank #3.
BioMarin’s stock has lost 20.0% in the past year. BioMarin beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing out on one occasion. BMRN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.68%, on average.
Merck (MRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +23.45% and a Zacks Rank #3.
In the past year, Merck’s stock has risen 14.3%. Merck beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. MRK delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.80%, on average. Merck is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 1, before market open.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.