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5 Insurers Set to Outshine Estimates This Earnings Season

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Per the latest Earnings Preview, the Finance sector’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings are expected to decrease 0.8%. Revenues are estimated to rise 2.6%. Results of Insurance, one of the Finance sector industries, are likely to reflect better pricing and exposure growth, accelerated digitalization and an improved interest rate. However, cat losses are likely to have weighed on profitability.

With the help of the Zacks Stock Screener, we have identified five insurers, namely, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL - Free Report) , Everest Group Ltd. (EG - Free Report) , The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc (HIG - Free Report) , Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC - Free Report) and Willis Towers Watson plc (WTW - Free Report) , which are poised to outshine the Zacks Consensus Estimate in fourth-quarter earnings. These stocks have the ideal combination of two ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), #3 (Hold) — to surpass expectations. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Factors Likely to Impact Q4 Results

Improved pricing, portfolio repositioning, reinsurance covers, favorable reserve development and prudent underwriting are likely to aid underwriting results. The profitability of non-life insurers is susceptible to catastrophe losses. Per reports in Reinsurance News, JP Morgan estimates insured losses in the fourth quarter to be in the range of $8-$10 billion, largely attributable to Hurricane Otis. Catastrophes continued to provide impetus to policy renewal rates and aided in better pricing in the fourth quarter. Per a report in Business Insurance, U.S. commercial insurance rates rose 5.6% on average in the fourth quarter.

Auto premiums are likely to have improved, given increased travel across the world. A stronger mortgage market is likely to have favored mortgage insurance premiums. A low unemployment rate is likely to have aided commercial insurance and group insurance.

Life insurers have been redesigning products, focusing on protection products. Increasing awareness and demand for protection products are likely to have fueled sales. Life insurers continue to roll out investment products that provide bundled covers of guaranteed retirement income, life and healthcare to cater to customers preferring policies with “living” benefits more than those with death benefits.

Investment results are likely to benefit from an improved rate environment. A larger investment asset base, higher reinvestment rate and alternative investments are likely to have aided net investment income, an important component of insurers’ top line.

Continued investment in technological advancements is likely to have saved costs and, in turn, led to margin expansion. Share buybacks are expected to have provided an additional upside to the bottom line.

Potential Q4 Outperformers

Arch Capital Group offers insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance across the world. Premiums in the fourth quarter are expected to have benefited from growth in most lines of business, primarily related to rate increases, new business opportunities and gains in existing accounts in the Insurance and Reinsurance segments. Better pricing and increased exposure are likely to have aided underwriting profitability.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACGL’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.94, suggesting a decrease of 9.4% from the year-ago reported figure. ACGL has an Earnings ESP of +1.24% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
 

Arch Capital Group Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Arch Capital Group Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Arch Capital Group Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Arch Capital Group Ltd. Quote

Everest Group is a property and casualty insurer and reinsurer. The insurer’s performance is likely to have benefited from global presence, product diversification, rate increase and a high retention rate. The Insurance segment is likely to have benefited from an increase in property and short tail business and a rise in specialty casualty business. Opportunities stemming from the continued disruption and evolution of the market are likely to have aided the Reinsurance segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EG’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $14.63, suggesting an increase of 19.8% from the year-ago reported figure. EG has an Earnings ESP of +1.18% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Everest Group, Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Everest Group, Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Everest Group, Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Everest Group, Ltd. Quote

The Hartford Financial is one of the major multi-line insurance and investment companies in the country, providing investment products, group life and group disability insurance, property and casualty (P&C) insurance and mutual funds in the United States.  Revenues are expected to have benefited from improved premiums across its Commercial Lines, Personal Lines and Group Benefits businesses in the fourth quarter. Increased returns from the fixed-income portfolio of Hartford Financial, attributable to higher interest rates, are likely to aid its fourth-quarter investment results. However, its bottom line is expected to have suffered a blow due to escalating benefits, losses and loss adjustment expenses, as well as higher insurance operating costs.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HIG’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.39, suggesting an increase of 3.5% from the year-ago reported figure. HIG has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Manulife Financial is one of the three dominant life insurers within its domestic Canadian market and possesses rapidly growing operations in the United States and several Asian countries. The strength of its Asia business, as well as an expanding Wealth and Asset Management business, is likely to drive fourth-quarter results.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 62 cents, indicating a decrease of 4.6% from the year-ago reported figure. MFC has an Earnings ESP of +2.81% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Manulife Financial Corp Price and EPS Surprise

Manulife Financial Corp Price and EPS Surprise

Manulife Financial Corp price-eps-surprise | Manulife Financial Corp Quote

Willis Towers is a leading global advisory, broking and solutions company. Higher organic commissions and fees, solid customer retention levels and growth of new business are likely to have aided revenues. Risk & Broking is likely to have delivered a favorable performance owing to solid new business, client retention and solid contributions from organic growth.  New clients, increased compliance and other project activity, and growth from higher volumes and placements are likely to have favored the Health, Wealth & Career segment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WTW’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $7.04, implying an increase of 11.2% year over year. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.23% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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