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These 2 Finance Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

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Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider T. Rowe Price?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. T. Rowe Price (TROW - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) one day from its next quarterly earnings release on February 8, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.62 a share.

TROW has an Earnings ESP figure of +1.33%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.62 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.60. T. Rowe Price is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

TROW is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. PROG Holdings (PRG - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

PROG Holdings, which is readying to report earnings on February 21, 2024, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.71 a share, and PRG is 14 days out from its next earnings report.

For PROG Holdings, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.67 is +5.97%.

TROW and PRG's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) - free report >>

Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc. (PRG) - free report >>

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