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Can Biogen (BIIB) Keep the Beat Streak Alive in Q4 Earnings?
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We expect Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Feb 13, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.27%.
Factors to Consider
Biogen’s sales in the fourth quarter are likely to have been hurt by lower sales of its multiple sclerosis (“MS”) drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri and rising competitive pressure in the MS market. Tecfidera sales have been declining as multiple generic versions of the drug have been launched in the United States.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for fourth-quarter sales of Tecfidera are pegged at $227.0 million and $214.8 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Tysabri are pegged at $444.0 million and $448.0 million, respectively.
Sales of another MS drug, Vumerity, are likely to have increased, driven by global patient growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Vumerity are pegged at $174.0 million and $171.8 million, respectively.
Sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, are expected to have risen in the United States, driven by patient growth. In ex-U.S. markets, favorable shipment timing in certain markets benefitted sales in the third quarter, a trend we expect to have reversed in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Spinraza are pegged at $447.0 and $459.5 million, respectively.
Biosimilar revenues are expected to have been modest as the continued launch of Byooviz is likely to have made up for pricing pressure in certain markets.
Investors will be keen to know the commercialization plans for Biogen’s new drug, Zurzuvae (zuranolone), which was approved for postpartum depression in August and launched in mid-December 2023. Biogen has a collaboration with Sage Therapeutics (SAGE - Free Report) for Zurzuvae. Sage and Biogen will equally share profits and losses for commercialization of Zurzuvae in the United States, while in outside U.S. markets, Biogen will record product sales (excluding Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea) and pay royalties to Sage.
However, the FDA issued a complete response letter for the new drug application (NDA) seeking approval of zuranolone for another indication, major depressive disorder (MDD) indication. The FDA has asked for an additional study to be conducted as it believes the NDA did not provide enough evidence to prove the candidate’s effectiveness in the treatment of MDD.
Biogen’s profit contribution from partner Eisai for their new Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi/lecanemab is expected to be minimal as the companies face challenges with the drug’s launch.
In September, Biogen acquired Reata Pharmaceuticals for approximately $7.3 billion. The acquisition added Reata’s newly approved rare disease drug, Skyclarys, for the treatment of Friedreich’s ataxia to Biogen’s portfolio. Skyclarys generated sales of $43 million in the third quarter, which according to Biogen were strong. However, Skyclarys’ sales were not included in third-quarter revenues as the acquisition closed in September. Investors will be keen to know the contribution of Skyclarys to fourth-quarter revenues. A regulatory filing for the drug in a similar indication is currently under review in Europe.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings beat estimates in the last four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.98%, on average.
Biogen’s stock has declined 15.9% in the past year compared with a decrease of 11.7% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Biogen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is +1.72% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.22 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.16. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +142.61% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Moderna’s stock has declined 42.1% in the past year. Moderna topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. MRNA delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 31.20%, on average. Moderna is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 22.
bluebird bio’s stock has declined 85.9% in the past year. bluebird bio beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. BLUE delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 83.66%, on average.
Image: Bigstock
Can Biogen (BIIB) Keep the Beat Streak Alive in Q4 Earnings?
We expect Biogen (BIIB - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results on Feb 13, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.27%.
Factors to Consider
Biogen’s sales in the fourth quarter are likely to have been hurt by lower sales of its multiple sclerosis (“MS”) drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri and rising competitive pressure in the MS market. Tecfidera sales have been declining as multiple generic versions of the drug have been launched in the United States.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for fourth-quarter sales of Tecfidera are pegged at $227.0 million and $214.8 million, respectively.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Tysabri are pegged at $444.0 million and $448.0 million, respectively.
Sales of another MS drug, Vumerity, are likely to have increased, driven by global patient growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Vumerity are pegged at $174.0 million and $171.8 million, respectively.
Sales of Biogen’s spinal muscular atrophy drug, Spinraza, are expected to have risen in the United States, driven by patient growth. In ex-U.S. markets, favorable shipment timing in certain markets benefitted sales in the third quarter, a trend we expect to have reversed in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Spinraza are pegged at $447.0 and $459.5 million, respectively.
Biosimilar revenues are expected to have been modest as the continued launch of Byooviz is likely to have made up for pricing pressure in certain markets.
Investors will be keen to know the commercialization plans for Biogen’s new drug, Zurzuvae (zuranolone), which was approved for postpartum depression in August and launched in mid-December 2023. Biogen has a collaboration with Sage Therapeutics (SAGE - Free Report) for Zurzuvae. Sage and Biogen will equally share profits and losses for commercialization of Zurzuvae in the United States, while in outside U.S. markets, Biogen will record product sales (excluding Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea) and pay royalties to Sage.
However, the FDA issued a complete response letter for the new drug application (NDA) seeking approval of zuranolone for another indication, major depressive disorder (MDD) indication. The FDA has asked for an additional study to be conducted as it believes the NDA did not provide enough evidence to prove the candidate’s effectiveness in the treatment of MDD.
Biogen’s profit contribution from partner Eisai for their new Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi/lecanemab is expected to be minimal as the companies face challenges with the drug’s launch.
In September, Biogen acquired Reata Pharmaceuticals for approximately $7.3 billion. The acquisition added Reata’s newly approved rare disease drug, Skyclarys, for the treatment of Friedreich’s ataxia to Biogen’s portfolio. Skyclarys generated sales of $43 million in the third quarter, which according to Biogen were strong. However, Skyclarys’ sales were not included in third-quarter revenues as the acquisition closed in September. Investors will be keen to know the contribution of Skyclarys to fourth-quarter revenues. A regulatory filing for the drug in a similar indication is currently under review in Europe.
Earnings Surprise History
The company’s earnings beat estimates in the last four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.98%, on average.
Biogen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Biogen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Biogen Inc. Quote
Biogen’s stock has declined 15.9% in the past year compared with a decrease of 11.7% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Biogen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Biogen’s Earnings ESP is +1.72% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.22 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.16. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Biogen has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +142.61% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Moderna’s stock has declined 42.1% in the past year. Moderna topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. MRNA delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 31.20%, on average. Moderna is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 22.
bluebird bio (BLUE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +28.34% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
bluebird bio’s stock has declined 85.9% in the past year. bluebird bio beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. BLUE delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 83.66%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.