The fourth-quarter earnings season for the drug and biotech sector is almost halfway through. Most large drug and biotech stocks have already announced fourth-quarter results so far. The results have been mixed so far. While industry players like Regeneron, AbbVie, and Bristol-Myers beat on both earnings and sales, others like Novartis, AstraZeneca and Sanofi missed on both earnings and sales. Merck, Pfizer and GSK came out with mixed results.

The pharma/biotech industry falls under the broader Medical sector, comprising pharma/biotech and generic companies, and medical device companies.

Per the Earnings Trends report dated Feb 7, 56.7% of the Medical sector participants, constituting 85.8% of the sector’s market capitalization, have already posted earnings. While 79.4% of the companies beat on earnings, 85.3% surpassed on revenues. Earnings decreased 17.7% year over year, while revenues rose 7%.

Overall, fourth-quarter earnings of the Medical sector are expected to decline 18.2%, while revenues are projected to increase 6.3%.

Let's see how things have shaped up for Biogen Inc. (BIIB Quick QuoteBIIB - Free Report) , Zoetis Inc. (ZTS Quick QuoteZTS - Free Report) and Incyte Corporation (INCY Quick QuoteINCY - Free Report) ahead of their fourth-quarter 2023 results. These companies will release earnings on Feb 13.

Biogen

Biogen’s performance has been impressive so far, with earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.98%, on average. In the last reported quarter, BIIB beat earnings expectations by 9.27%.

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Biogen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Biogen’s Earnings ESP is +1.46% and it has a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $3.16 per share.

Biogen’s revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have been hurt by lower sales of its multiple sclerosis (“MS”) drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri and rising competitive pressure in the MS market. Tecfidera sales have been declining as multiple generic versions of the drug have been launched in the United States.

Meanwhile, Biogen’s profit contribution from partner Eisai for their new Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi/lecanemab is expected to have been minimal as the companies face challenges with the drug’s launch.

Zoetis

Zoetis has an encouraging surprise history so far. The bottom line surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and met on the other remaining occasion. The company delivered an average earnings surprise of 2.68%. In the last reported quarter, ZTS beat earnings expectations by 0.74%.

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Zoetis in the to-be-reported quarter.

Zoetis’ Earnings ESP is +0.21% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.33 per share.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The veterinary drugmaker’s revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have been driven by the rising sales of companion animal products both in the United States and in international markets.

Growth in ZTS’ key dermatology products and livestock product sales are also expected to have contributed to its revenues from the United States and International markets, respectively, in the to-be-reported quarter.

Incyte

Incyte has a mixed surprise history so far. The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same on the remaining occasion, delivering an average negative surprise of 9.17%. In the last reported quarter, INCY came up with an earnings surprise of 0.92%.

Incyte has an Earnings ESP of +2.27% and it carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.21 per share.

An increase in sales of Incyte’s lead drug, Jakafi, a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, is likely to have boosted revenues in the fourth quarter. However, competition might have dented sales growth somewhat.

Importantly, incremental sales from newly approved drugs like Opzelura (ruxolitinib) cream and Zynyz are expected to have boosted Incyte’s revenues in the fourth quarter.

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