We are in the last leg of the fourth-quarter 2023 reporting cycle and a lot of pharma and biotech bigwigs have already reported results. The picture looks reasonably good. Bellwether J&J reported strong fourth-quarter results, wherein its earnings and sales beat their respective estimates. Swiss pharma giant Novartis’ sales and earnings lagged their respective estimates.

Among the biotechs, Biogen reported lower-than-expected results for the fourth quarter, as both its earnings and sales missed estimates. Gilead Sciences reported mixed results for the fourth quarter, wherein earnings missed expectations but sales surpassed the same. Bristol-Myers reported better-than-expected results on the back of growth in its new product portfolio.

Per the Zacks classification, the pharma/biotech industry comes under the broader Medical sector, which comprises pharma/biotech as well as medical device companies.

Per the Earnings Trends report, as of Feb 20, 86.7% of the companies in the Medical sector — representing 97.7% of the sector’s market capitalization — reported quarterly earnings. Of these, 78.8% outperformed earnings, while 82.7% beat revenues. Earnings decreased 15.8% year over year, while revenues increased 7.6%. Overall, fourth-quarter earnings of the Medical sector are expected to decline 17.9%, while sales are expected to rise 7% year over year.

Let’s analyze five drug/biotech companies, Moderna (MRNA Quick QuoteMRNA - Free Report) , Bausch Health Companies (BHC Quick QuoteBHC - Free Report) , Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA Quick QuoteNTLA - Free Report) , BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN Quick QuoteBMRN - Free Report) and IntraCellular Therapies (ITCI Quick QuoteITCI - Free Report) , which are set to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 22.

Moderna

Modern has a decent track record. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 31.20%. In the last reported quarter, it delivered an earnings surprise of 30.85%. 

Per our proven model, stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +37.55% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

While sales of COVID-19 vaccines are likely to have declined significantly due to lower demand, Moderna’s progress with its pipeline will interest investors.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter loss per share is pegged at 82 cents.

Bausch Health

Bausch Health has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missing the same in one, delivering an average surprise of 0.04%. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 11.96%.

For the quarter to be reported, BHC has an Earnings ESP of -1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Bausch's Salix business has most likely maintained momentum as Xifaxan, Relistor and Trulance continue to grow. However, the neurology and dermatology businesses might have faced challenges, thereby impacting the Diversified segment.

Intellia Therapeutics

Intellia’s earnings surprise history has been decent. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, met in one and missed in the other, delivering an average surprise of 5.04%. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 9.21%.

For the quarter to be reported, Intellia has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and Zacks Rank #2. 

In the absence of a marketed product, the focus is mostly on pipeline progress candidates — NTLA-2001, a CRISPR-based gene-edited therapy for the treatment of transthyretin (ATTR) amyloidosis and NTLA-2002 for the treatment of hereditary angioedema.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical

BioMarin Pharmaceutical also has a good track record. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, met in one and missed in the other, delivering an average surprise of 11.68%. In the last reported quarter, BMRN’s earnings met the consensus mark.

For the quarter to be reported, BMRN has an Earnings ESP of +30.45% and Zacks Rank #3.

Dwarfism drug Voxzogo sales are likely to have driven fourth-quarter results. The recent label expansion of Voxzogo in the United States and Europe for use in infants with achondroplasia has likely boosted the drug’s sales.

IntraCellular Therapies

IntraCellular Therapies has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 34.86%. In the last reported quarter, ITCI beat on earnings by 57.63%.

For the quarter to be reported, ITCI has an Earnings ESP of -1.14% and Zacks Rank #3.  

Investors’ focus will be on Caplyta sales when the company reports fourth-quarter results. Caplyta, approved for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, is performing well and showing strong demand trends.

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