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The J.M. Smucker (SJM) Q3 Earnings Coming Up: Factors to Note

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The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM - Free Report) is likely to register bottom-line growth when it reports fiscal third-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb 27. The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at $2.26 per share, which indicates an increase of 2.3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. SJM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.1%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.21 billion compared with $2.22 billion reported in the prior-year quarter.

Factors to Consider

The J. M. Smucker has been benefiting from the sustained demand for its products, together with the favorable net price realization and effective cost control. Pricing is likely to have remained a driver in the quarter under review. The company has been committed to increasing its focus and resources to reshape its portfolio to achieve sustainable growth across pet food and pet snacks, coffee as well as snacking categories. 

The J. M. Smucker Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The J. M. Smucker Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The J. M. Smucker Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The J. M. Smucker Company Quote

The consensus mark for the fiscal third-quarter sales in the U.S. Retail Consumer Foods segment is pegged at $445 million compared with $434 million reported in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for the Retail Coffee unit stands at $726 million compared with $735 million in the same period last year.

We note that The J.M. Smucker divested Sahale Snacks and announced the sale of its Canadian condiments business in the second quarter of fiscal 2024. These are likely to have impacted the fiscal third-quarter results. Additionally, the company acquired the premier snacking company, Hostess Brands, in November 2023, which is expected to have contributed sales worth roughly $300 million in the fiscal third quarter.

For the fiscal third quarter, comparable net sales increase is expected at a mid-single-digit rate.  The company expects the fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth at a low-single-digit rate year over year, including an adverse impact of around 20 cents per share associated with the Hostess Brands buyout. Nonetheless, the combined capabilities of Hostess Brands and The J.M. Smucker products are likely to have resulted in strengthened distribution.

The company appears troubled by elevated selling, distribution and administrative (SD&A) costs. The J. M. Smucker’s bottom-line view for fiscal 2024 assumes elevated SD&A expenses. This includes costs related to Hostess Brands’ acquisition, along with pre-production costs associated with Uncrustables capacity expansion, elevated marketing expenditures and increased investments in liquid coffee. These may have impacted profits in the fiscal third quarter as well.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for The J. M. Smucker this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

The J. M. Smucker has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time:

The Gap, Inc. currently has an Earnings ESP of +24.44% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1. GPS is likely to register a bottom-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 19 cents suggests a rise of 125.3% from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s reported number. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Gap’s top line is expected to decrease from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.21 billion, suggesting a decline of 0.7% from the prior-year fiscal quarter’s reported figure. GPS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 137.9%, on average.

Inter Parfums (IPAR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.71% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Inter Parfums’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $329 million, indicating a rise of 5.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Inter Parfums’ quarterly earnings of 35 cents per share suggests a decrease of 50.7% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. IPAR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 45.7%, on average.

Costco Wholesale (COST - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank of 2. COST is likely to register top-and-bottom-lines growth when it reports the second quarter of fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $59.2 billion, suggesting an increase of 7.1% from that reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s earnings for the second quarter has advanced by a penny in the past seven days to $3.60 per share, indicating a rise of 9.1% from the year-ago period reported figure. COST delivered an earnings beat of 2.6%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

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