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Autodesk (ADSK) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Autodesk (ADSK - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Feb 29.

The company anticipates revenues between $1.422 billion and $1.437 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $1.43 billion, suggesting growth of 8.57% from the year-ago quarter.

Autodesk projects non-GAAP earnings in the band of $1.91-$1.97 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $1.95 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. The figure indicates a 4.84% year-over-year rise.

Autodesk’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 4.46%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up before the announcement.

Autodesk, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Autodesk, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Autodesk, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Autodesk, Inc. Quote

Factors to Note

The company's fiscal fourth-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from strong growth in subscription revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for subscription revenues is pegged at $1.32 billion, indicating growth of 9.3% year over year.

This growth is attributed to the increasing trend of cloud migration, which is being accelerated by the ongoing digital transformation across various industries. The demand for Autodesk's cloud solutions is being propelled by this broader trend.

A solid uptick in the maintenance-to-subscription program, continued momentum in new customer billings and steady renewals are expected to have acted as tailwinds.

The robust adoption of the AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT product family is anticipated to have favored ADSK's top line. AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT are flagship products within Autodesk's portfolio, which is widely used in various industries for computer-aided design purposes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT product family’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $395 million.

The company is likely to have gained from the robust performance of the Enterprise Business Agreements program. This is anticipated to have boosted Autodesk’s remaining performance obligation growth rates in the quarter to be reported.

Gains from Autodesk Build, a field management solution and part of the Autodesk Construction Cloud, are expected to have contributed to the to-be-reported quarter's top line as the company has been witnessing steady traction with owners, general contractors and subcontractors across the construction industry.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Media & Entertainment, Manufacturing and Other product family’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $73 million, $264 million and $31.29 million, respectively.

However, inflationary pressures, foreign exchange movements, labor shortages and macroeconomic headwinds might have negatively impacted ADSK’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Autodesk this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

ADSK currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Per our model, SEMrush (SEMR - Free Report) , SentinelOne (S - Free Report) and The Gap have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

SEMrush has an Earnings ESP of +23.08% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 4. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice in the trailing four quarters while matching the same on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 112.50%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SEMR’s fourth-quarter earnings has remained unchanged at 3 cents per share for the past 90 days. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $83.19 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 20.93%.

SentinelOne has an Earnings ESP of +16.30% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Mar 13. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 33.54%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 4 cents per share, indicating growth of 69.23% from the prior-year quarter's level. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $169.5 million, implying a year-over-year increase of 34.42%.

The Gap has an Earnings ESP of +24.44% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Mar 7. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same once, delivering an average surprise of 137.89%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GPS’ fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 19 cents per share, indicating a surge of 125.33% from the prior-year quarter's level. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $4.21 billion, implying a year-over-year decrease of 0.68%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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