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Adtalem (ATGE) Down 3.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Adtalem Global Education (ATGE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Adtalem due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Adtalem Q2 Earnings & Revenues Top, ‘24 View Raised

Adtalem reported impressive results for second-quarter fiscal 2024 (ended Dec 31, 2023). Earnings and revenues surpassed the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year.

The company’s quarterly results reflect solid enrollment growth along with the efficient execution of its Growth with Purpose strategy. The continuous focus on this growth strategy has sparked organic revenue growth, improved operational efficiencies and yielded outstanding academic outcomes. Owing to the quarter’s uptrend, ATGE has raised its fiscal 2024 guidance. With more than 81,000 students and 300,000 alumni, the company is well-equipped to address critical healthcare provider shortages.

Earnings & Revenue Discussion

Adjusted earnings of $1.23 per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of $1.01 per share by 21.8% and increased 51.4% from earnings of $1.17 per share in the year-ago quarter.
 
Revenues of $393.2 million beat the consensus mark of $374.1 million by 5.1% and increased 8.4% year over year. Strong demand at Chamberlain University and Walden University boosted the results.

For the fiscal second quarter, the enrollment of total students increased 6.2% year over year to 81,772 students. Our Zacks model predicted a total student enrollment of 77,607 in the reported quarter.

Adjusted operating income declined 3% from the prior-year quarter’s level to $75.6 million. Adjusted operating margin declined 230 basis points (bps) year over year to 19.2%. Adjusted EBITDA was $92.6 million, up 2.3% from the prior-year quarter’s level. Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 150 bps year over year to 23.5%. This value can be compared with our expectation of 20.5% for the metric.

Segment Details

Chamberlain: Revenues in the segment were up 8.6% from the year-ago quarter’s level, totaling $153.6 million. Total student enrollment increased 6.6% to 35,592 students, driven by continued growth in pre-licensure and post-licensure nursing programs and higher persistence across the segment.

Adjusted operating income declined 10.8% from the prior-year quarter’s level to $29.6 million. Adjusted operating margin contracted 420 bps year over year to 19.3%. Adjusted EBITDA was $36.9 million, down 2.2% from the prior-year quarter’s level. Adjusted EBITDA margin also fell 270 bps to 24%.

Walden: The segment generated revenues of $146.8 million, up 11.3% year over year. Total student enrollment in the quarter increased 7.9% year over year to 40,971 students, driven by growth in healthcare and non-healthcare programs, and high persistence.

Adjusted operating income was $30.2 million, up 3.9% from a year ago. Adjusted operating margin contracted 140 bps year over year to 20.6%. Adjusted EBITDA was $34.6 million, up 9.8% from the prior-year period’s level. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 30 bps year over year to 23.6%.

Medical and Veterinary: Revenues in the segment grew 3.8% to $92.9 million from the year-ago quarter’s figure. Total student enrollment declined 7.5% from the prior-year quarter’s level to 5,209. This school did not have a new enrollment period starting the fiscal second quarter of 2024 and is the same as the prior quarter.

Adjusted operating income declined 2% from the prior-year quarter’s figure to $22.5 million. Adjusted operating margin contracted 130 bps year over year to 23.8%. Adjusted EBITDA was $26.4 million, up 2.3% from the prior-year quarter’s level. Adjusted EBITDA margin fell 40 bps year over year to 28.4%.

Liquidity & Cash Flow

As of Dec 31, 2023, Adtalem had cash and cash equivalents of $182.9 million compared with $273.7 million at the end of fiscal 2023. Long-term debt was $696.4 million, up from $695.1 million at the end of fiscal 2023. Trailing 12-month net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.5x at December 2023 end. For the first six months of fiscal 2024, net cash provided by operating activities (continuing operations) totaled $83.1 million compared with $42.3 million in the year-ago period. Free cash flow in the quarter was $(23) million compared with $(53) million a year ago.

Raised Fiscal 2024 Guidance

Adtalem now expects revenues within the range of $1,520-$1,560 million, up from the prior expectation of $1,470-$1,530 million. Adjusted earnings are in the range of $4.55-$4.75 per share, up from the prior estimate of earnings of $4.25-$4.45 per share.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, Adtalem has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Adtalem has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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