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More Big Data, Q2 Earnings Parade & Herbalife

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Friday, July 15, 2016

Before the opening bell today, we see new numbers for U.S. economic reads the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales and the Empire State Index. Short answer: the U.S. consumer appears to be in good shape. June CPI was +0.2%, June Retail Sales +0.6% and Empire State +0.55 for July.

Digging into these numbers a bit, Retail Sales performed even better once we strip out auto sales (+0.7%), and the control group hit 0.5%. The May figure dropped 0.3%, but the forward look is pretty sunny. Charting inflation metrics, CPI retained +0.2% growth in June even with food and energy prices stripped out. This is lighter than the Producer Price Index (PPI) report yesterday, which rose 0.5%. The Empire State Index number is the only weaker figure in the bunch, coming in well below June’s 6.01% to 0.55% for July.

All of these figures point to a favorable scenario going forward. Analysts had been hoping for a rebound in Q2, and thus far it seems to be taking place. And this without a widening maw of inflation indicators to rain on the parade.

Speaking of parades, two more big Wall Street banks have reported Q2 earnings results before the bell today: Citigroup (C - Free Report) posted an impressive earnings and revenue beat while Wells Fargo (WFC - Free Report) just met the consensus estimate on the bottom line while missing slightly on sales.

This continues the big bank narrative thus far (early on) in Q2 earnings season; previously this week we’d seen solid beats from JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) and PNC Financial (PNC - Free Report) , while BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) modestly underperformed expectations.

New Life for Herbalife

Also this morning, Herbalife (HLF - Free Report) has reached a deal with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to the tune of $200 million. Herbalife has agreed to change certain business practices — including Herbalife representatives providing receipts on sales, on which they will be paid by the company. What Herbalife gets in return is a statement from the FTC that the company is considered not a “pyramid scheme” (as activist investor Bill Ackman has long claimed).

Upon the initial news report, HLF shares shot up 12% in pre-market trading. Since they have cooled a bit, but this is a positive development for Herbalife investors and a black eye for short-sellers of HLF. Market futures overall are once again positive this morning: Dow +30, Nasdaq +2.5 and S&P 500 +3.5.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor