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If You Invested $1000 in Toll Brothers a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now

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How much a stock's price changes over time is important for most investors, since price performance can both impact your investment portfolio and help you compare investment results across sectors and industries.

The fear of missing out, or FOMO, also plays a factor in investing, especially with particular tech giants, as well as popular consumer-facing stocks.

What if you'd invested in Toll Brothers (TOL - Free Report) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to TOL for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?

Toll Brothers' Business In-Depth

With that in mind, let's take a look at Toll Brothers' main business drivers.

Based in Horsham, PA, Toll Brothers Inc. builds single-family detached and attached home communities; master planned luxury residential resort-style golf communities; and urban low, mid, and high-rise communities, principally on the land it develops and improves.

Notably, during fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings call, the company concluded that City Living operations no longer meet the definition of an operating segment, primarily due to the change in structure and a shift in strategy for its operations.

Toll Brothers now operate in five geographical segments — North (accounted for 14.9% of fiscal 2023 sales), Mid-Atlantic (11.8%), South (22.1%), Mountain (26.6%) and Pacific (23.3%).

Since November 2018, the company started reporting land sale activities under the Land sales and other category (1.3%).

Toll Brothers is also building homes for rental apartment projects. Toll Brothers Apartment Living, Toll Brothers Realty Trust and Toll Brothers Campus Living are brands offered under this rental apartment project. These rental projects operate in lucrative markets like metro-Boston to metro-Washington, D.C. corridor and Atlanta.

 

At the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Toll Brothers had $2.5 billion of total liquidity, comprising $754.8 million in cash and cash equivalents and $1.8 billion available under the revolver capacity. The revolving bank credit facility will not mature until February 2028. Also, total debt at the fiscal first-quarter end was $2.72 billion, down from $2.86 billion at the fiscal 2023 end. Debt to capital was 28% at the fiscal first-quarter end, down from 29.6% at the fiscal 2023-end.

Bottom Line

While anyone can invest, building a lucrative investment portfolio takes research, patience, and a little bit of risk. If you had invested in Toll Brothers ten years ago, you're probably feeling pretty good about your investment today.

According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in March 2014 would be worth $3,346.75, or a gain of 234.68%, as of March 14, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases.

Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 179.76% and gold's return of 51.16% over the same time frame.

Going forward, analysts are expecting more upside for TOL.

Toll Brothers’ first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings and revenues surpassed their respective Zacks Consensus Estimate by 27.1% and 4.1%. Both metrics increased on a year-over-year basis. The company is gaining from strong market demand, combined with its policy of boosting its supply of spec homes and focusing on operational efficiency. Also, the emphasis on affordable luxury communities and its build-to-order model bodes well. Since mid-January, TOL has experienced a notable surge in demand coinciding with the onset of the spring selling season. Considering the upward market trend, the company expects home deliveries of 10,000-10,500 units in fiscal 2024, which reflects growth from 9,597 units in fiscal 2023. Earnings estimates for fiscal 2024 have increased in the past seven days. However, the shortage of skilled labor is a concern.

The stock is up 19.84% over the past four weeks, and no earnings estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 8 higher, for fiscal 2024. The consensus estimate has moved up as well.

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