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Oil Prices Surge in Q1 Amid OPEC Cuts and Geopolitical Risks

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Oil prices rallied in the first quarter of 2024, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude futures registering significant increases. Brent oil, the global benchmark, rose nearly 14%, while WTI, which tracks U.S. crude, surged approximately 16% during the quarter. On Thursday — the last trading day of the quarter — the global benchmark settled at $87.48 per barrel, while U.S. crude closed at $83.17 a barrel.

Several factors contributed to the uptrend in oil prices. One significant driver was the ongoing production cut by major oil-producing nations, including Russia and members of the OPEC cartel. These cuts helped tighten the supply-demand dynamics in the market, leading to a reduction in global oil inventories.

While uncertainties persist, particularly regarding geopolitical risks and supply dynamics, analysts remain optimistic about the potential for further price gains in the crude market. Some oil-related stocks that could benefit in the current environment include Murphy USA (MUSA - Free Report) , Sunoco LP (SUN - Free Report) and Helmerich & Payne (HP - Free Report) .

Factors Driving the Increase:

Since 2022, OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have implemented various production cuts to support oil prices as the market grapples with rising U.S. production and sluggish global demand. The latest round of voluntary cuts, which began in January, aimed to reduce combined production targets by approximately 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd).

Last month, Saudi Arabia confirmed the decision to extend the voluntary cuts until the end of June. In a surprising move, Russia announced an additional voluntary cut of 471,000 bpd for the second quarter. This decision, along with the commitment from other key producers like Iraq and the UAE to extend their cuts, underscores the collective effort to stabilize oil markets.

Geopolitical tensions also played a role in supporting oil prices. Escalating conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict, raised concerns about potential supply disruptions in key oil-producing regions. Additionally, attacks on ships in the Red Sea further heightened market anxieties, contributing to the bullish sentiment.

What Lies Ahead?

Despite concerns over robust U.S. production, oil prices remained resilient, supported by expectations of sustained demand and ongoing supply constraints. Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor developments related to OPEC's production policies. While the alliance has extended its output cuts until the end of June, any signs of member countries deviating from these agreements could impact market sentiment. Moreover, geopolitical events and economic indicators will continue to influence oil prices in the coming months.

To conclude, the overall sentiment on oil prices seems to be leaning toward the bullish side, with the OPEC production cut putting a floor under prices.

3 Energy Stocks to Buy

Some of the best energy stocks to take advantage of the opportunities in the market include Murphy USA, Sunoco LP and Helmerich & Payne. MUSA and SUN have a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, while HP carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Murphy USA: The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.6%, on average.

Murphy USA is valued at around $8.7 billion. The company has seen its shares surge 61.6% in a year.

Sunoco LP: The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for SUN indicates 35.9% year-over-year earnings per unit growth.

Sunoco is valued at around $6.1 billion. SUN has seen its units rise 34.7% in a year.

Helmerich & Payne: Over the past 60 days, Helmerich & Payne saw the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2024 move up 6.7%. HP beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed in the other, delivering an average surprise of 20.2%.

Helmerich & Payne is valued at around $4.2 billion. HP’s shares have gained 9.4% in a year.


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