We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Here is What to Know Beyond Why Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a Trending Stock
Read MoreHide Full Article
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this Mexican food chain have returned +10.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.7% change. The Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, to which Chipotle belongs, has lost 3.5% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Chipotle is expected to post earnings of $11.37 per share, indicating a change of +8.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.1% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $53.12 points to a change of +18.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $64.63 indicates a change of +21.7% from what Chipotle is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Chipotle is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Chipotle, the consensus sales estimate of $2.66 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +12.3%. The $11.22 billion and $12.64 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +13.7% and +12.7%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Chipotle reported revenues of $2.52 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +15.4%. EPS of $10.36 for the same period compares with $8.29 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.49 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.98%. The EPS surprise was +6.47%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Chipotle is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Chipotle. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
Here is What to Know Beyond Why Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is a Trending Stock
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.
Shares of this Mexican food chain have returned +10.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.7% change. The Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, to which Chipotle belongs, has lost 3.5% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
For the current quarter, Chipotle is expected to post earnings of $11.37 per share, indicating a change of +8.3% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.1% over the last 30 days.
For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $53.12 points to a change of +18.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $64.63 indicates a change of +21.7% from what Chipotle is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Chipotle is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS
Projected Revenue Growth
While earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.
In the case of Chipotle, the consensus sales estimate of $2.66 billion for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +12.3%. The $11.22 billion and $12.64 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +13.7% and +12.7%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Chipotle reported revenues of $2.52 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +15.4%. EPS of $10.36 for the same period compares with $8.29 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.49 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.98%. The EPS surprise was +6.47%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.
Valuation
Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Chipotle is graded F on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.
Bottom Line
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Chipotle. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.