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International Markets and American Axle (AXL): A Deep Dive for Investors

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Have you looked into how American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL - Free Report) performed internationally during the quarter ending March 2024? Considering the widespread global presence of this maker of auto parts, examining the trends in international revenues is essential for assessing its financial resilience and prospects for growth.

In the current global economy, which is more interconnected than ever, a company's success in penetrating international markets is crucial for its financial health and growth journey. Investors must understand a company's dependence on overseas markets, as this offers a window into the company's earnings stability, its ability to benefit from varied economic cycles and its potential for long-term growth.

Being present in international markets serves as a counterbalance to domestic economic challenges while offering chances to engage with more rapidly evolving economies. However, this kind of diversification introduces challenges like currency fluctuations, geopolitical uncertainties and varying market trends.

Upon examining AXL's recent quarterly performance, we noticed several interesting patterns in the revenue generated from its international segments, which are commonly analyzed and observed by Wall Street experts.

The company's total revenue for the quarter amounted to $1.61 billion, marking an increase of 7.6% from the year-ago quarter. We will next turn our attention to dissecting AXL's international revenue to get a clearer picture of how significant its operations are outside its main base.

Decoding AXL's International Revenue Trends

Of the total revenue, $245.8 million came from Europe during the last fiscal quarter, accounting for 15.3%. This represented a surprise of +25.74% as analysts had expected the region to contribute $195.49 million to the total revenue. In comparison, the region contributed $227 million, or 15.5%, and $222.7 million, or 14.9%, to total revenue in the previous and year-ago quarters, respectively.

During the quarter, Asia contributed $150.7 million in revenue, making up 9.4% of the total revenue. When compared to the consensus estimate of $130.65 million, this meant a surprise of +15.35%. Looking back, Asia contributed $156.4 million, or 10.7%, in the previous quarter, and $112.5 million, or 7.5%, in the same quarter of the previous year.

South America generated $36.5 million in revenues for the company in the last quarter, constituting 2.3% of the total. This represented a surprise of +22.2% compared to the $29.87 million projected by Wall Street analysts. Comparatively, in the previous quarter, South America accounted for $35.8 million (2.5%), and in the year-ago quarter, it contributed $47.2 million (3.2%) to the total revenue.

Revenue Forecasts for the International Markets

Wall Street analysts expect American Axle to report $1.59 billion in total revenue for the current fiscal quarter, indicating an increase of 1.2% from the year-ago quarter. Europe, Asia and South America are expected to contribute 12.9% ($205.3 million), 8% ($126.73 million) and 2.3% ($37.01 million) to the total revenue, respectively.

For the full year, the company is projected to achieve a total revenue of $6.23 billion, which signifies a rise of 2.5% from the last year. The share of this revenue from various regions is expected to be: Europe at 13% ($806.55 million), Asia at 8.9% ($556.62 million) and South America at 2.4% ($149.72 million).

Key Takeaways

Relying on global markets for revenues presents both prospects and challenges for American Axle. Therefore, scrutinizing its international revenue trends is key to effectively forecasting the company's future outlook.

In a world where international interdependencies and geopolitical conflicts are ever-increasing, Wall Street analysts closely monitor these trends for companies having international presence to adjust their earnings forecasts. Of course, there are several other factors, including a company's standing within its home borders, that influence analysts' earnings forecasts.

Emphasizing a company's shifting earnings prospects is a key aspect of our approach at Zacks, especially since research has proven its substantial influence on a stock's price in the short run. This correlation is positively aligned, meaning that improved earnings projections tend to boost the stock's price.

Our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, with its externally validated exceptional track record, harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions to serve as a dependable measure for anticipating the short-term price trends of stocks.

Currently, American Axle holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), signifying its potential to match the overall market's performance in the forthcoming period. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

Reviewing American Axle's Recent Stock Price Trends

The stock has witnessed an increase of 3% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's a decrease of 1.6%. In the same interval, the Zacks Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, to which American Axle belongs, has registered a decrease of 1.4%. Over the past three months, the company's shares saw a decrease of 8.7%, while the S&P 500 increased by 3.8%. In comparison, the sector experienced an increase of 1.6% during this timeframe.


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