Back to top

Image: Shutterstock

Cracker Barrel (CBRL) to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2024 results on May 30. In the last reported quarter, CBRL registered an earnings surprise of 6.2%.

The Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 56 cents, indicating a deterioration of 53.7% from $1.21 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $826.6 million. The projection suggests a decline of 0.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

 

Let’s check out the factors likely to have influenced CBRL’s performance in the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Cracker Barrel's fiscal third-quarter top line is likely to have been hurt by dismal traffic and same-store sales. Although Cracker Barrel reported solid sales in second-quarter fiscal 2024, with a notable improvement of 300 basis points in traffic trend sequentially, it continues operating in an uncertain environment. The industry is still facing challenges and CBRL expects industry traffic to remain under pressure for the rest of the fiscal year.

CBRL’s retail business faces challenges stemming from broader industry pressures, particularly in discretionary categories. Although holiday assortments are expected to be well received, overall sales are projected to remain soft in the fiscal third quarter. Our model predicts fiscal third-quarter retail same-store sales to decline 4.2% year over year.

Ongoing inflation, low consumer confidence and high interest rates are expected to impact consumer behavior negatively and the company's potential results in the fiscal third quarter. A store portfolio review in the fiscal third quarter led to several closures and associated expenses, including non-cash impairment charges.

Strategic investments in advertising and labor are likely to have increased costs and exerted margin pressure in the to-be-reported quarter. For third-quarter fiscal 2024, our model predicts Labor and Other Related Expenses to rise 4% year over year to $309.9 million. We expect adjusted store operating expenses to increase 2.7% year over year to $774.1 million. Our model predicts adjusted operating income to decline 42.5% year over year to $19.5 million.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Cracker Barrel has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.53% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2024 EPS is pegged at $1.66, suggesting an increase from 39 cents registered in the year-ago period. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Abercrombie & Fitch’s top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $952.3 million, indicating an increase of 13.9% from the prior-year quarter’s levels. ANF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 715.6%, on average.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.98% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line in first-quarter fiscal 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS of 28 cents suggests an increase of 64.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figures.

American Eagle Outfitters’ top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.15 billion, calling for an increase of 6.2% from the year-ago quarter’s tally. AEO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.7%, on average.

Dollar Tree (DLTR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.16% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register top-line growth in first-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The consensus mark for DLTR’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $7.6 billion, suggesting growth of 4.2% from the prior-year quarter’s levels.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DLTR’s earnings has moved down by 2 cents to $1.43 per share in the past seven days. However, the consensus estimate indicates a 2.7% decline from the year-ago quarter’s levels.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Published in