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NMI Holdings (NMIH) Up 1.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for NMI Holdings (NMIH - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is NMI Holdings due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

NMI Holdings Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat, Rise Y/Y

NMI Holdings reported first-quarter 2024 operating net income per share of $1.08, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12.5%. The bottom line increased 22.7% year over year. The quarterly results reflected higher premiums and net investment income, and increased persistency, which drove growth in the company’s high-quality insured portfolio.

Operational Update

NMI Holdings’ total operating revenues of $156 million increased 13.8% year over year on higher net premiums earned (up 12.2%) and net investment income (up 30.5%). Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.5%.

Primary insurance in force increased 7.1% to $199.4186.7 billion. Annual persistency was 85.8%, up 70 basis points (bps) year over year. New insurance written was $9.4 billion, up 7.6% year over year.

Underwriting and operating expenses totaled $29.8 million, up 15.5% year over year. Insurance claims and claim expenses were $3.7 million, reflecting a drop of 44.7% year over year. The loss ratio was 2.7, which improved 280 bps year over year.

The adjusted expense ratio of 22.4 deteriorated 60 bps year over year, while the adjusted combined ratio of 24.5 improved 60 bps year over year.

Financial Update

Book value per share, a measure of net worth, was up 3.1% year over year to $24.56 as of Mar 31, 2024.

NMI Holdings had $139.7 million in cash and cash equivalents, which increased 44.5% from 2023 end. The debt balance of $397.6 million increased 0.1% from the end of 2023.

The annualized adjusted return on equity was 18.2%, which expanded 30 bps year over year.

Total PMIERs available assets were $2.8 billion and net risk-based required assets totaled $1.6 billion at the end of first-quarter 2024.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 5.3% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, NMI Holdings has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise NMI Holdings has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

NMI Holdings belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry. Another stock from the same industry, Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) , has gained 6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2024.

Arch Capital reported revenues of $3.76 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +21.7%. EPS of $2.45 for the same period compares with $1.73 a year ago.

Arch Capital is expected to post earnings of $2.21 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +15.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +1.7%.

Arch Capital has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.


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