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Acadia (ACAD) Up 0.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Acadia Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss
Acadiareported first-quarter 2024 earnings of 10 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 4 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the company had incurred a loss of 27 cents per share.
The bottom line improved year over year owing to higher product sales.
Acadia recorded total revenues of $205.8 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $206.9 million. Its net product revenues comprise revenues generated from the sale of its two marketed products, Nuplazid and the newly launched Daybue.
Total revenues surged 74% year over year, primarily driven by the contribution from Daybue and the continued growth in market share of Nuplazid.
Quarter in Detail
Revenues from Nuplazid increased 10% year over year to $129.9 million, driven by improvements in new patient starts and higher price benefits. Nuplazid sales were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate but missed our model estimate of $131.6 million.
Daybue recorded net product sales of $75.9 million in its third full quarter since launch, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $78.1 million as well as our model estimate of $77.2 million. Daybue sales declined 13% sequentially due to fewer bottles sold and a reduction in net price.
Research and development (R&D) expenses in the quarter were $59.7 million, down 13.7% year over year. The decrease in R&D cost was due to the Daybue commercial supply build that was expensed prior to its approval.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $108 million, up 6.7% year over year. The increase in such expenses can be attributed to the annualization of Daybue expenses, along with investments to commercialize the drug outside the United States.
Acadia had cash, cash equivalents and investments worth $470.5 million as of Mar 31, 2024, compared with $438.9 million as of Dec 31, 2023.
2024 Guidance Reaffirmed
Acadia reiterated its previously provided financial guidance for 2024 in its first-quarter earnings release.
The company continues to expect Daybue sales in the range of $370-$420 million in 2024.
Revenues from Nuplazid sales are anticipated in the $560-$590 million band.
Moreover, ACAD expects its full-year R&D expenses in the band of $305-$325 million, while SG&A expenses are anticipated in the range of $455-$480 million on account of higher commercialization costs associated with the Daybue launch.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -20.13% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Acadia has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Acadia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Acadia is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 26.1%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2024 more than a month ago.
Moderna reported revenues of $167 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -91%. EPS of -$3.07 for the same period compares with $0.19 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Moderna is expected to post a loss of $3.46 per share, indicating a change of +4.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.2% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Moderna. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.
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Acadia (ACAD) Up 0.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) . Shares have added about 0.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Acadia Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Miss
Acadiareported first-quarter 2024 earnings of 10 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 4 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the company had incurred a loss of 27 cents per share.
The bottom line improved year over year owing to higher product sales.
Acadia recorded total revenues of $205.8 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $206.9 million. Its net product revenues comprise revenues generated from the sale of its two marketed products, Nuplazid and the newly launched Daybue.
Total revenues surged 74% year over year, primarily driven by the contribution from Daybue and the continued growth in market share of Nuplazid.
Quarter in Detail
Revenues from Nuplazid increased 10% year over year to $129.9 million, driven by improvements in new patient starts and higher price benefits. Nuplazid sales were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate but missed our model estimate of $131.6 million.
Daybue recorded net product sales of $75.9 million in its third full quarter since launch, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $78.1 million as well as our model estimate of $77.2 million. Daybue sales declined 13% sequentially due to fewer bottles sold and a reduction in net price.
Research and development (R&D) expenses in the quarter were $59.7 million, down 13.7% year over year. The decrease in R&D cost was due to the Daybue commercial supply build that was expensed prior to its approval.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $108 million, up 6.7% year over year. The increase in such expenses can be attributed to the annualization of Daybue expenses, along with investments to commercialize the drug outside the United States.
Acadia had cash, cash equivalents and investments worth $470.5 million as of Mar 31, 2024, compared with $438.9 million as of Dec 31, 2023.
2024 Guidance Reaffirmed
Acadia reiterated its previously provided financial guidance for 2024 in its first-quarter earnings release.
The company continues to expect Daybue sales in the range of $370-$420 million in 2024.
Revenues from Nuplazid sales are anticipated in the $560-$590 million band.
Moreover, ACAD expects its full-year R&D expenses in the band of $305-$325 million, while SG&A expenses are anticipated in the range of $455-$480 million on account of higher commercialization costs associated with the Daybue launch.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -20.13% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Acadia has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Acadia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Acadia is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 26.1%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2024 more than a month ago.
Moderna reported revenues of $167 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -91%. EPS of -$3.07 for the same period compares with $0.19 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Moderna is expected to post a loss of $3.46 per share, indicating a change of +4.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.2% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Moderna. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of F.