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How to Find Strong Consumer Staples Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
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Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider General Mills?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. General Mills (GIS - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) nine days from its next quarterly earnings release on June 26, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $1 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.99 Zacks Consensus Estimate, General Mills has an Earnings ESP of +0.93%. Investors should also know that GIS is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
GIS is part of a big group of Consumer Staples stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Kimberly-Clark (KMB - Free Report) as well.
Kimberly-Clark, which is readying to report earnings on July 23, 2024, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.71 a share, and KMB is 36 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kimberly-Clark is $1.67, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +2.25%.
GIS and KMB's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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How to Find Strong Consumer Staples Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider General Mills?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. General Mills (GIS - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) nine days from its next quarterly earnings release on June 26, 2024, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $1 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.99 Zacks Consensus Estimate, General Mills has an Earnings ESP of +0.93%. Investors should also know that GIS is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
GIS is part of a big group of Consumer Staples stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Kimberly-Clark (KMB - Free Report) as well.
Kimberly-Clark, which is readying to report earnings on July 23, 2024, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.71 a share, and KMB is 36 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kimberly-Clark is $1.67, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +2.25%.
GIS and KMB's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>