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If You Invested $1000 in Chipotle Mexican Grill a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now

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For most investors, how much a stock's price changes over time is important. Not only can it impact your investment portfolio, but it can also help you compare investment results across sectors and industries.

Another thing that can drive investing is the fear of missing out, or FOMO. This particularly applies to tech giants and popular consumer-facing stocks.

What if you'd invested in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to CMG for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?

Chipotle Mexican Grill's Business In-Depth

With that in mind, let's take a look at Chipotle Mexican Grill's main business drivers.

A Delaware corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, together with its subsidiaries, operates quick-casual and fresh Mexican food restaurant chains. The company was founded in 1993 by Steve Ells, who started with a single restaurant in Denver, CO. The company offers a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads. Chipotle restaurants feature free-range, hormone-free pork, natural chicken and other meat products cooked using traditional methods and served in a unique atmosphere.

The company is committed to using high-quality real ingredients, classic cooking techniques and distinctive interior design to serve customers. As of Dec 31, 2023, the company owned and operated more than 3,400 restaurants across the United States, Canada, the U.K., France and Germany.

The company’s growth is significantly driven by its digital platform. It has enhanced its capabilities by digitizing restaurant kitchens, expanding partnerships with third-party delivery services, and increasing the number of Chipotlanes (drive-through format for customer pick-up of digital orders). Digital sales, encompassing revenue generated through the Chipotle website, Chipotle app, or third-party delivery aggregators, which also includes revenue deferrals linked to Chipotle Rewards, constituted 37.4% of food and beverage revenue in 2023, compared to 39.4% in 2022 and 45.0% in 2021. The company has facilitated convenient digital ordering through enhancements to the Chipotle app and website, including unlimited customization, contactless delivery, and group ordering.

The company utilizes multiple marketing channels, including national television, digital marketing, social media, fundraising, events and sponsorships to reach consumers. Third-party service providers mostly provide delivery services.

In 2018, Chipotle launched a loyalty program called Chipotle Rewards, which provides customers with the opportunity to earn bonus points or free food. Earned rewards generally expire one to six months after they are issued and points typically expire if an account is inactive for six months.

Bottom Line

Putting together a successful investment portfolio takes a combination of research, patience, and a little bit of risk. For Chipotle Mexican Grill, if you bought shares a decade ago, you're likely feeling really good about your investment today.

A $1000 investment made in June 2014 would be worth $5,670.34, or a 467.03% gain, as of June 18, 2024, according to our calculations. Investors should note that this return excludes dividends but includes price increases.

Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 181.84% and gold's return of 75.51% over the same time frame.

Analysts are forecasting more upside for CMG too.

Shares of Chipotle have outperformed the industry in the year-to-date period. The company is benefiting from its digital efforts, Chipotlane add-ons and marketing initiatives. This along with strength in digital sales and new restaurant openings have been driving the company. Also, a strong comparable restaurant sales growth bodes well. For 2024, Chipotle anticipates comps growth in the mid to high-single-digit range, driven by its transaction growth and strong comps growth trends. It intends to focus on the stage-gate process and leverage digital programs to expand access and convenience. Earnings estimates for 2024 have increased in the past 30 days, depicting analysts’ optimism regarding the stock’s growth potential. However, commodity and wage inflation are concerning.

The stock has jumped 5.95% over the past four weeks. Additionally, no earnings estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 14 higher, for fiscal 2024; the consensus estimate has moved up as well.

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