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These 2 Consumer Staples Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

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Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Philip Morris?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Philip Morris (PM - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.57 a share 27 days away from its upcoming earnings release on July 23, 2024.

By taking the percentage difference between the $1.57 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.55 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Philip Morris has an Earnings ESP of +1.42%. Investors should also know that PM is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

PM is just one of a large group of Consumer Staples stocks with a positive ESP figure. Estee Lauder (EL - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Slated to report earnings on August 16, 2024, Estee Lauder holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.28 a share 51 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder is $0.27, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +3.32%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, PM and EL could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>


See More Zacks Research for These Tickers


Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:


Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - free report >>

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) - free report >>

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