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Enphase (ENPH) Unveils Solargraf in Netherlands: To Hold or Fold?

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Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH - Free Report) recently unveiled its Solargraf software platform in the Netherlands. This launch marks another effort by ENPH to expand its market reach in Europe’s growing solar industry, following its IQ8 Microinverters’ launch in Finland in May 2024.

Notably, ENPH’s advanced Solargraf software offers enhanced features like Public Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) to streamline business operations, while its advanced 3D modeling tool can detect obstructions and optimize panel placement. It can also factor in utility-imposed penalties for power exports, thereby improving Return on Investment accuracy.

These features are likely to have boosted Solargraf's demand, as evidenced by its use among solar installers in multiple countries like the United States, Canada, Brazil, Germany and Austria.

Solar Prospects in Europe

In this context, it's crucial to note that as European nations are rapidly adopting renewable energy, the growth potential for solar stocks remains promising. Evidently, solar led the renewable surge in the European Union’s (EU) electricity mix in 2023, according to Ember's annual European Electricity Review.

This must have been encouraging prominent solar players like Enphase Energy to aggressively enhance their footprint in the EU region. Notably, in January 2024, the company launched its IQ8 Microinverters in Belgium and in April, this product was made available in France and Spain.

Enphase apart, other Zacks Solar stocks are also making their move to strengthen their business in the EU solar market. In June 2024, SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG - Free Report) unveiled its three-phase solar inverter and home battery solution at the Intersolar exhibition in Munich, set for release in Europe's residential market in the second half of 2025.

At the same event, Canadian Solar (CSIQ - Free Report) showcased its three-phase EP Cube home storage system for the EU market. In April, Emeren Group (SOL - Free Report) partnered with Italy’s Nuveen Infrastructure to co-develop two battery storage projects with a combined capacity of 2.83 gigawatts in Southern Italy's Apulia region.

Long-Run Growth Opportunities

Enphase revolutionized the solar industry with its semiconductor-based microinverter. Adapting to recent market dynamics, the company now produces fully integrated solar-plus-storage solutions to enhance its product diversity. As of Mar 31, 2024, more than 4,900 installers (globally) were certified to install its IQ Batteries. In June 2024, Enphase began shipping its most powerful home battery, the IQ Battery 5P, to Canada. Looking ahead, it plans to start battery manufacturing in the United States in the third quarter of 2024.

On the other hand, to reap the benefits of the booming electric vehicle market (EV), the company is manufacturing EV chargers. Notably, it shipped 3,700 EV chargers in the fourth quarter of 2023. The company is currently developing IQ smart EV chargers for various European countries, set for release in 2024.

Such product diversities should boost the long-term growth prospect of ENPH. The company has a long-term (three-to-five) earnings growth rate of 17%.

Headwinds to Keep an Eye On

Despite being a prominent industry player in the U.S. solar market, the demand environment for Enphase’s products experienced a broad-based slowdown, beginning second-quarter 2023 in the United States and the second half of 2023 in Europe. This trend continued into the first quarter of 2024. Consequently, the company’s first-quarter revenues plunged 64% year over year, primarily on account of the declined shipment of its microinverters and batteries.

Looking ahead, ENPH expects some of the aforementioned uncertainties in the United States and Europe to continue to hurt its revenues in 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ENPH’s second-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $309.2 million, indicating a decrease of 56.5% from the year-ago actuals. This is likely due to the aforementioned challenges.

Based on the trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization), a commonly used multiple for valuing solar stocks, ENPH is currently trading at 42.27X, above the industry’s comparable level of 14.14X.

Final Thoughts

A quick sneak peek at Enphase’s share price performance does not reflect the benefits of its recent product launch or steady expansion efforts. Notably, its shares lost 26.4% in the year-to-date period, underperforming its industry’s decline of 20%.

In this regard, we should factor in the recent industry challenges that have been plaguing the U.S. solar market and possibly weighed on ENPH’s performance as well. These challenges include dismal installation trends, particularly in the residential solar segment, as the industry continues to struggle against high interest rates and transition to net energy metering 3.0 in California. Also, unfavorable tariff imposition on the import of solar cells and modules, including the removal of the bifacial module exemption, has been taking a toll on the solar industry, which might have dragged down ENPH’s share performance as well.  

Since these challenges are not going to disappear altogether anytime soon, we may safely advise investors to refrain from rushing to buy ENPH right now. Instead, they should keep a close vigil on the company’s future performance for a more appropriate entry point. The stock’s Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) further supports our thesis.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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