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We again have a slow start to the trading day. Ahead of the opening bell, we have no major economic reports or earnings results to peruse, and look ahead to today’s regular trading day to see the first of the Jobs Week reports: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). These will be followed in quick succession by private-sector payroll numbers and Weekly Jobless Claims Wednesday, and the Employment Situation report Friday morning.
JOLTS numbers are reported a month in arrears from the other monthly data. Thus, we are looking for May data today at 10am ET, with expectations for 7.9 million job openings that month. This would be the lowest we’ve seen since February 2021, and lower than the previous month’s 8.1 million (which had been estimated at 8.34 million). It only takes a cursory look at the five-year chart to see we are a long way from the 12.2 million peak in job openings reported back in March of 2022.
Breaking down figures from the last JOLTS report may be useful. The biggest sector where we saw jobs dry up in April were in Healthcare/Social Assistance, which were greater than -200K. In terms of region, the Midwest shed the most job openings last go-around: -224K. By comparison, the South was still growing job openings at a +93K clip; we’ll make sure to take a look at that metric to see if this still holds.
Expectations for the rest of Jobs Week look a tad curious. Private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) are expected to tick up to around 170K from 152K reported a month ago, while Friday’s non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have seen the consensus estimate ratchet up to 200K as of this morning. Looking at past history, surprises to forecasts have generally been to the upside; it would appear analysts are continuing in this mode until further notice.
Beyond jobs this week, the European Central Bank (ECB) holds an important event. The ECB Forum on Central Banking, known by shorthand as the Sintra Forum, located in Sintra, Portugal, began yesterday and ends tomorrow. Attendees include U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and, of course, ECB President Christine Lagarde, who said yesterday the ECB remains unconvinced that inflation issues are completely in the past, despite an ECB rate cut last month.
Finally, auto deliveries report today, throughout the course of the trading session. First among these is Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , which has reported better-than-expected results for now the second quarter in a row: just under 444K, hotter than the 436K estimated. The company’s greatest weakness continues to be in China, which fell -24.2% year over year; Tesla has BYD Company hot on its heels, with 426K EVs delivered in the quarter. Nevertheless, Tesla shares are +5% in early trading today (still down -10% year to date).
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Wall Street Awaits JOLTS Report
We again have a slow start to the trading day. Ahead of the opening bell, we have no major economic reports or earnings results to peruse, and look ahead to today’s regular trading day to see the first of the Jobs Week reports: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). These will be followed in quick succession by private-sector payroll numbers and Weekly Jobless Claims Wednesday, and the Employment Situation report Friday morning.
JOLTS numbers are reported a month in arrears from the other monthly data. Thus, we are looking for May data today at 10am ET, with expectations for 7.9 million job openings that month. This would be the lowest we’ve seen since February 2021, and lower than the previous month’s 8.1 million (which had been estimated at 8.34 million). It only takes a cursory look at the five-year chart to see we are a long way from the 12.2 million peak in job openings reported back in March of 2022.
Breaking down figures from the last JOLTS report may be useful. The biggest sector where we saw jobs dry up in April were in Healthcare/Social Assistance, which were greater than -200K. In terms of region, the Midwest shed the most job openings last go-around: -224K. By comparison, the South was still growing job openings at a +93K clip; we’ll make sure to take a look at that metric to see if this still holds.
Expectations for the rest of Jobs Week look a tad curious. Private-sector payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) are expected to tick up to around 170K from 152K reported a month ago, while Friday’s non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have seen the consensus estimate ratchet up to 200K as of this morning. Looking at past history, surprises to forecasts have generally been to the upside; it would appear analysts are continuing in this mode until further notice.
Beyond jobs this week, the European Central Bank (ECB) holds an important event. The ECB Forum on Central Banking, known by shorthand as the Sintra Forum, located in Sintra, Portugal, began yesterday and ends tomorrow. Attendees include U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and, of course, ECB President Christine Lagarde, who said yesterday the ECB remains unconvinced that inflation issues are completely in the past, despite an ECB rate cut last month.
Finally, auto deliveries report today, throughout the course of the trading session. First among these is Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) , which has reported better-than-expected results for now the second quarter in a row: just under 444K, hotter than the 436K estimated. The company’s greatest weakness continues to be in China, which fell -24.2% year over year; Tesla has BYD Company hot on its heels, with 426K EVs delivered in the quarter. Nevertheless, Tesla shares are +5% in early trading today (still down -10% year to date).