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Mac Sales Set to Rise 20.8%: Should You Buy Apple (AAPL) Stock?

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Apple’s (AAPL - Free Report) Mac sales are expected to have jumped 20.8% year over year in the second quarter of 2024, per latest data from market research firm IDC. The iPhone maker is estimated to have shipped 5.7 million Macs, thereby grabbing a market share of 8.8% compared with 7.5% in the year-ago quarter. 

Apple’s estimated shipment growth rate is the largest in IDC’s vendor list. While shipments of Acer Group, Lenovo (LNVGY - Free Report) and HP (HPQ - Free Report) are expected to have grown 13.7%, 3.7% and 1.8%, respectively, Dell Technologies (DELL - Free Report) is likely to have declined 2.4%.

Lenovo still leads the market with a 22.7% share trailed by HPQ and DELL at 21.1% and 15.5%, respectively. However, Apple gained the most in terms of market share, followed by Acer Group and Lenovo. Dell Technologies and HP lost market share per IDC data.

IDC estimates 64.9 million sold units in the second quarter of 2024, up 3% year over year. In contrast, Gartner estimates shipment of 60.6 million units, up 1.9% year over year. In Gartner’s list also Apple gains the most in terms of shipments (up 13.1%) as well as market share (9% versus 8.1% in the year-ago quarter). (Read More: What Insight Does Q2 PC Data Offer for the Market's Future Course?)

IDC 2Q24 Shipment Details

IDC Image Source: IDC

Gartner 2Q24 Shipment Details

Gartner Image Source: Gartner

Apple Shares Ride on Strong Mac Sales, AI Focus

Lately, AAPL shares have been gaining attention from investors thanks to its AI push with the introduction of Apple Intelligence, an advanced personal intelligence system seamlessly integrated into iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and macOS Sequoia, its annual developers’ event, the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC). 

Both IDC and Gartner’s strong Mac sales estimates provide a further boost to Apple’s share price movement. Apple’s AI push is expected to bring consumer-focused AI-enabled PCs into the market, thereby aiding PC shipments in the long haul.

Apple shares hit a 52-week high of $233.08 on Jul 10 and finally closed at $232.98, up 21% year to date. Since Jun 10, when the iPhone maker hosted WWDC, Apple shares have jumped 20.6%, outperforming the Zacks Computer-Mini industry’s gain of 18.2% and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s return of 8%.

Apple’s Performance Since WWDC

Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Apple has been playing catch-up in the AI space compared with Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, its peers in the “magnificent seven” group. Following the launch of Apple Intelligence, its competitive position is expected to improve.

Leveraging the power of GenAI models, Apple Intelligence aims to enhance user experience across iPhone, iPad and Mac by combining robust language and image understanding with personal context. This technology, powered by Apple silicon, promises to simplify and accelerate everyday tasks while maintaining Apple’s stringent privacy standards.

Siri, powered by Apple Intelligence, has become more natural, contextually aware, and capable of handling complex tasks. Users can communicate with Siri using both voice and text, and the assistant can now maintain context across multiple requests. Siri’s functionality now extends to providing device support and answering detailed questions about using the iPhone, iPad and Mac.

In a significant enhancement, Apple is integrating ChatGPT into its platforms, allowing users to access its expertise directly within iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and macOS Sequoia. Siri can utilize ChatGPT’s capabilities, with user consent, to provide more detailed and accurate information. ChatGPT will also be available in the systemwide Writing Tools, enhancing content creation with advanced language models and image generation.

Conclusion

Apple’s near-term prospects remain foggy due to sluggish China sales amid stiff competition from local competitors. It expects the June quarter’s (third-quarter fiscal 2024) revenues to grow low-single-digit year over year. Unfavorable forex is expected to hurt revenues by 2.5%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $83.75 billion, indicating 2.38% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for earnings has increased by a penny to $1.33 per share over the past 30 days suggesting year-over-year growth of 5.56%.

Positive Estimate Revision

Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Although Apple’s Value Style Score of D indicates a stretched valuation at this moment, the momentum in Mac sales and AI push is hard to ignore for growth-oriented investors. An expanding user base of more than 2 billion active devices makes Apple’s investment profile attractive. 

Apple’s strong balance sheet and robust cash flow generating ability are also noteworthy. As of Mar 30, 2024, its cash & marketable securities balance was a whopping $162.34 billion, making share buyback and dividend payout sustainable. Apple’s board has authorized an additional $110 billion for share repurchases and raised dividend payout by 4% to 25 cents per share.

Apple currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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