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Campbell Soup's (CPB) Snacks Unit Stays Resilient Amid Hurdles

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Campbell Soup Company (CPB - Free Report) has been demonstrating strong execution and strategic resilience amid a dynamic consumer environment. The company’s Snacks division, anchored by robust power brands, remains strong despite temporary pressures.  That said, the Meals and Beverages unit remains a vital growth catalyst.

The acquisition of Sovos Brands has proven fruitful, contributing positively to the company's third-quarter fiscal 2024 performance. Apart from this, Campbell Soup's ongoing cost-saving initiatives and supply-chain optimizations are aimed at mitigating inflationary impacts and enhancing profitability.

Robust Snacks Unit

Campbell Soup's Snacks division is well-positioned for growth, driven by the strength of its power brands and strategic optimization initiatives. Despite the current challenges, the division's resilience and long-term growth potential make it a vital component of Campbell Soup's overall portfolio. Over the past three years, the Snacks categories have shown remarkable resilience, exhibiting minimal price elasticity.

Over the past three years, the Snacks categories have shown remarkable strength, exhibiting minimal price elasticity. Although there has been a recent slowdown due to prolonged economic pressure on lower and middle-income consumers, the division still averages 8% consumption growth, surpassing total food and historical snack growth averages. This modest slowdown is less severe compared to other edible categories, reflecting the enduring consumer demand for snacks.

Though sales in the segment decreased year over year in the third quarter of fiscal 2024 due to declines in lower-margin partner brands, contract manufacturing and fresh bakery, the company continued to see strength in its power brands, such as Goldfish and Late July. As power brands now form two-thirds of the company’s Snacks business, they provide a robust foundation for sustained growth. Campbell Soup is on track to outline a clear growth acceleration path for its power brands and a strategy to optimize the remaining parts of the existing Snacks portfolio.

Other Drivers

Management recently optimized its strategies and plans, focusing on three key areas. These include ensuring product affordability and maintaining competitive pricing within the boundaries of margin goals, sustaining marketing and innovation initiatives and adhering to a disciplined and balanced spending approach with a focus on high return on investment (ROI) and impactful plans.

Moving on, CPB acquired Sovos Brands in March 2024 and is reaping impressive gains from its addition. Specifically, Sovos Brands added 7 percentage points to the reported net sales growth in the third quarter. The performance of Sovos Brands, particularly Rao's, has been outstanding, with sales growing faster than expected, contributing positively to adjusted EBIT. Management remains confident about the long-term sales growth of Sovos Brands, expecting it to be in the mid-single-digit range.

Management raised its fiscal 2024 reported sales guidance to include contributions from Sovos Brands. For fiscal 2024, the company now expects net sales growth in the range of 3-4%. Earlier, net sales growth was expected between a 0.5% decline and an increase of 1.5%.

Is All Really Rosy for CPB?

Like other food companies, Campbell Soup remains affected by a dynamic macroeconomic scenario. The company is witnessing volatile consumer behaviors, especially among lower-income segments. The persistence of these headwinds could be a concern. CPB now expects organic net sales growth to be nearly flat to down 1% in fiscal 2024.  In its third-quarter earnings release, management stated that it was then tracking toward the midpoint of this updated organic sales growth view, indicating the consumer recovery pace. Organic sales growth was earlier anticipated to range between flat and 2% growth.

Campbell Soup has been witnessing cost inflation for a while. In the third quarter of fiscal 2024, the company witnessed core inflation in the low single digits during the quarter and expects it to remain within this range for the remainder of fiscal 2024. Campbell Soup remains focused on managing areas of its portfolio affected by the rising cost of inputs, including tomatoes, olive oil and cocoa, as well as ongoing inflation in labor and warehousing expenses. However, the company’s productivity initiatives and cost-savings programs are likely to effectively balance the impact of inflation in the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, Campbell Soup anticipates gaining momentum, marked by steady year-over-year volume growth, double-digit increases in both adjusted EBIT and adjusted earnings per share and sustained progress in integrating Sovos Brands. Shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have risen more than 4% in the past three months.

Better-Ranked Food Bets

Vital Farms Inc. (VITL - Free Report) offers a range of produced pasture-raised foods. It currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. VITL has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 102.1%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vital Farms’ current financial-year sales and earnings indicates growth of 22.6% and 62.7%, respectively, from year-ago reported numbers.

Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT - Free Report) , a pet food company, has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 118.2%, on average. FRPT currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s current financial-year sales and earnings suggests growth of 24.8% and 177.1%, respectively, from the prior-year reported level.

Stryve Foods, Inc. (SNAX - Free Report) , which manufactures, markets and sells healthy snacking products, currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). SNAX has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.7%, on average.

The consensus estimate for Stryve Foods’ current financial-year earnings indicates growth of 31.7% from year-ago reported numbers.

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