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Here's What to Expect From Progressive (PGR) in Q2 Earnings
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The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2024 earnings on Jul 16 before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates in the last reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.99 per share on revenues of $18 billion. The top and bottom-line estimates suggest an increase of 298% and 18.3%, respectively, from a year ago.
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chance of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
Net premiums earned are likely to have benefited from a compelling product portfolio, leadership position, strength in the Vehicle and Property businesses, healthy policies in force and solid retention. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $17 billion. We estimate net premiums earned of $16.8 billion for the to-be-reported quarter, up 15.8 year over year.
Policies in force are likely to have been driven by PGR’s focus on segmentation and prudent risk selection. We estimate policies in force to total 31.8 million in the to-be-reported quarter.
Its competitive product offerings and strong market presence are likely to have benefited the personal auto business.
A higher invested asset base and a higher interest rate are likely to have aided net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $666 million. We estimate net investment income of $645.9 million for the to-be-reported quarter, up 42.1% year over year.
However, higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have raised expenses. We estimate total operating expenses to increase 7.6% to $16.1 billion. The consensus mark for loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio is pegged at 75.
Underwriting profitability is likely to have suffered due to higher catastrophe losses incurred attributable to severe storms, primarily in Texas and the Midwest.
Stocks to Consider
Here are three P&C insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.21% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.16, indicating a year-over-year increase of 12.5%
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Axis Capital Holdings (AXS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.57% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.55, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 14.4%.
AXS earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.39, implying an increase of 21.9% from the year-ago reported figure.
WRB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
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Here's What to Expect From Progressive (PGR) in Q2 Earnings
The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2024 earnings on Jul 16 before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates in the last reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.99 per share on revenues of $18 billion. The top and bottom-line estimates suggest an increase of 298% and 18.3%, respectively, from a year ago.
Per our proven model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chance of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
At present, Progressive has an Earnings ESP of -2.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Progressive Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Progressive Corporation Quote
Factors at Play
Net premiums earned are likely to have benefited from a compelling product portfolio, leadership position, strength in the Vehicle and Property businesses, healthy policies in force and solid retention. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $17 billion. We estimate net premiums earned of $16.8 billion for the to-be-reported quarter, up 15.8 year over year.
Policies in force are likely to have been driven by PGR’s focus on segmentation and prudent risk selection. We estimate policies in force to total 31.8 million in the to-be-reported quarter.
Its competitive product offerings and strong market presence are likely to have benefited the personal auto business.
A higher invested asset base and a higher interest rate are likely to have aided net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $666 million. We estimate net investment income of $645.9 million for the to-be-reported quarter, up 42.1% year over year.
However, higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have raised expenses. We estimate total operating expenses to increase 7.6% to $16.1 billion. The consensus mark for loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio is pegged at 75.
Underwriting profitability is likely to have suffered due to higher catastrophe losses incurred attributable to severe storms, primarily in Texas and the Midwest.
Stocks to Consider
Here are three P&C insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.21% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.16, indicating a year-over-year increase of 12.5%
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Axis Capital Holdings (AXS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.57% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.55, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 14.4%.
AXS earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.39, implying an increase of 21.9% from the year-ago reported figure.
WRB’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.