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Pressure is on Joe Biden to step out of the U.S. presidential election race
Mounting expectations of a September Fed rate cut
Q2 earnings
An ECB meeting, and
Britain's king unveiling the legislative program — of the new Labour Government
Don't race off for that summer break just yet.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
(1) Lots going on in the United States this week.
It's a big week in the United States with politics, retail sales, the Fed and bank earnings in focus.
Inflation and higher rates have tested the resilience of households as signs of a cooling economy and inflation bolster expectations for rate cuts to start in September.
Tuesday's retail sales data could show whether slowing growth is reflected in the consumer sector.
Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell speaks in Washington on Monday, while Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) delivers its earnings results on July 15th, followed by Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) the next day.
And markets have one eye on the looming U.S. presidential election, with Biden facing doubts about his re-election chances.
His rival, former president Donald Trump, will be officially nominated at the four-day Republican National Convention, starting Monday.
(2) Two big tech firms report in Europe this week.
Two of Europe's STOXX 600 heavyweights — Dutch semiconductor maker ASML (ASML - Free Report) and German software group SAP (SAP - Free Report) — release earnings in the week to come.
The influence of big tech firms on the overall market is a talking point. After all, stellar gains in U.S. Big Tech, led by AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , have skewed the overall performance picture for the S&P500 and much rides on their results.
The S&P is up +17% this year, but an equivalent equal-weight index (EWGSPC) is up just +3.8%.
No doubt, market breadth is a factor in Europe too.
The top 10 STOXX components make up 25% of the index, versus around 20% five years ago, LSEG data shows
But the STOXX's outperformance, up +7.8% YTD, versus its equal-weighted equivalent, up +3.8%, is narrower than its U.S. peer
Europe's equity market may be smaller than the U.S., but the love is spread more widely.
(3) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) keeps its policy rate steady.
The ECB is all but certain to keep rates steady on Thursday, a month after its first rate cut in five years.
Attention is on whether policymakers say more about further rate cuts.
Eurozone inflation eased for the first time in three months in June, but rose in the dominant services sector, where it has not dropped this year.
Some policymakers felt uneasy about June's rate cut, regretting committing weeks in advance.
So officials are in no hurry to flag what's next, and will scrutinize data out before the September meeting.
No doubt, ECB President Christine Lagarde will be quizzed about whether the bank is ready to step in and buy French and other government bonds in the event of further turmoil.
That looks unlikely unless there are much bigger market swings, or serious contagion to other countries' debt.
(4) In the U.K., the King’s speech announces the full Labour legislative agenda.
King Charles will announce the full legislative agenda of the new government of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 1200 GMT on Wednesday.
But investors are likely to be watching more keenly for inflation data out earlier that day.
Headline inflation eased back to the Bank of England's 2% target in May but policymakers are watching services prices most closely — they've been rising nearly 6% in annual terms.
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said he was unlikely to be swayed by one set of data, puncturing bets in financial markets on a rate cut as soon as the BoE's next scheduled monetary policy announcement on Aug. 1st.
The latest U.K. jobs data on Thursday will also be key for the BoE, which is worried about the strong pace of wage growth.
(5) On Monday, China’s 3rd plenum, an event held every five years, kicks off.
China's third plenum, a seminal event typically held every five years and originally expected late last year, kicks off on Monday.
Reforms top the agenda: they could include the most significant overhaul of the fiscal system in three decades to try to redirect income from Beijing to cash-strapped regional governments.
A parade of top-tier Chinese data releases meanwhile spans GDP, retail sales and industrial output.
While strong exports provided respite in the first half, sluggish domestic demand and a shrinking property sector could prove challenging for the rest of the year.
Deflation is a worry, and central bank efforts to support long-term bond yields could also hamper growth.
Still, investors are hopeful that new stimulus can lift market sentiment. Chinese blue chips (CSI300) have edged higher, after notching up seven straight weeks of losses.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
(1) Vertex Pharma (VRTX - Free Report) : This is a $492 stock with a market cap of $127B. It is found in the Medical-Biomedical and Genetics industry in the USA. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Boston, MA-based Vertex Pharmaceuticals is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of small molecule drugs targeting serious diseases.
The company’s main area of focus is cystic fibrosis (CF).
The company’s lead marketed products are:
Trikafta (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor)
Symdeko/Symkevi (tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor)
Orkambi (lumacaftor/ivacaftor) and
Kalydeco (ivacaftor)
They are collectively approved to treat nearly 75% of the 92,000 people with CF in North America, Europe and Australia.
Trikafta/Kaftrio (brand name of Trikafta in EU), Vertex’s triple combination regimen, is approved for the treatment of CF in people aged 2 years and older who have at least one F508del mutation in the United States and for CF patients aged 6 and above in countries outside the United States.
In 2023/early 2024, Vertex received regulatory approvals for its one-shot gene therapy Casgevy for treating two debilitating blood disorders, sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT), in the United States and European Union and some other countries like Great Britain, Bahrain and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
While CF remains the main area of focus, Vertex is also developing treatments for
Pimodivir/VX-787, for the treatment of influenza, was out-licensed to Janssen in 2014 while oncology candidates VX-970, VX-984 and VX-803 were divested to Merck KGaA in 2017.
The company recorded total revenues of $9.87B in 2023, up +11% y/y
Trikafta/Kaftrio accounted for more than 90% of the company’s total product revenues, and generated $8.94 billion in sales in 2023
(2) EssilorLuxxottica (ESLOY - Free Report) : This is a $109 stock with a market cap of $99.3B. It is found in the Medical Products industry in the USA. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
EssilorLuxottica Societe is involved in the design, manufacture, and distribution of ophthalmic lenses, frames and sunglasses.
The company's brand portfolio consists of:
Ray-Ban
Oakley
Varilux
Transitions
Sunglass Hut and
LensCrafters
EssilorLuxottica Societe, formerly known as Essilor International Societe Anonyme, is based in Paris, France.
(3) WalMart de Mexico WMMVY: This is a $37 stock with a market cap of $64.1B. It is found in the Retail-Supermarkets industry in Mexico. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
WalMart de Mexico-ADR operates 587 commercial units, including self-service stores, department, and restaurants.
Key Global Macro
On Monday, Mainland China’s GDP for Q2 came out, reaching +4.7% — below the +5.1% analysts were anticipating. The prior y/y reading was +5.2%.
There is also the start of a 2-day Eurogroup meeting.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) core CPI for June comes out. The prior reading was +1.8% y/y, while the broad CPI was up +2.9% y/y.
U.S. retail sales for June should be up +0.1% m/m, but the ex-Autos number could be down -0.1% m/m. That is static retail sales growth for you.
On Wednesday, the U.K. CPI data for June comes out. The prior broad reading was +2.0% y/y, while the core CPI there was +3.5% y/y.
In the Eurozone, the core HICP for June also comes out. The prior broad Euro Area HICP was +2.5% y/y, while the core was up +2.9% y/y.
U.S. housing starts for June (1.277M in the prior month) and building permits for June (1.399M in the prior month) come out.
The Fed’s latest Beige Book of regional economic conditions arrives.
On Thursday, the U.K.’s ILO unemployment gets an update for May. The prior reading was 4.4%.
There will be an ECB monetary policy statement. Their main refi rate is at 4.25%, and it should remain steady, after this meeting.
On Friday, U.K. retail sales for June come out. I see +1.3% y/y is the U.K.’s prior broad reading. Ex-fuel U.K. retail? I see a +1.2% y/y prior reading.
Canada’s retail sales for May comes out. I see a +0.7% m/m prior print. Ex-autos retail in Canada? +1.8% m/m.
Canada’s raw material price index for June is also out. The prior reading is -1.0% y/y.
Conclusion
As usual during a live earnings season, we conclude with the Q2-24 S&P500 tally.
What Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian had for traders, on July 10th—
(1) For Q2-24, Zacks expects S&P500 earnings to be up +8.0% from the same period last year on +4.6% higher revenues.
This will be the highest earnings growth rate since a +9.9% growth rate, seen in Q1-22.
(2) Earnings growth for the Energy sector is on track to turn positive in Q2-24, after remaining in negative territory, over the preceding four quarters.
(3) Zacks expects Q2-24 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ companies to be up +25.5% from the same period last year, on +13.2% higher revenues.
Exclude the ‘Mag 7’?
Q2-24 earnings growth for the rest of the index drops to +4.3% (from +8.0%).
(4) For the 19 S&P500 members that have reported quarterly results for their fiscal quarters ending in May 2024? Total earnings are up +25.7% from the same period last year, on +4.4% higher revenues.
84.2% beat EPS estimates. Only 36.8% beat revenue estimates.
Now, with that latest Zacks earnings data in hand?
Have an excellent trading week!
Warm regards,
John Blank, PhD Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
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Image: Bigstock
A Big Week in the USA: Global Week Ahead
What’s going on in this Global Week Ahead?
Don't race off for that summer break just yet.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
(1) Lots going on in the United States this week.
It's a big week in the United States with politics, retail sales, the Fed and bank earnings in focus.
Inflation and higher rates have tested the resilience of households as signs of a cooling economy and inflation bolster expectations for rate cuts to start in September.
Tuesday's retail sales data could show whether slowing growth is reflected in the consumer sector.
Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell speaks in Washington on Monday, while Goldman Sachs (GS - Free Report) delivers its earnings results on July 15th, followed by Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) the next day.
And markets have one eye on the looming U.S. presidential election, with Biden facing doubts about his re-election chances.
His rival, former president Donald Trump, will be officially nominated at the four-day Republican National Convention, starting Monday.
(2) Two big tech firms report in Europe this week.
Two of Europe's STOXX 600 heavyweights — Dutch semiconductor maker ASML (ASML - Free Report) and German software group SAP (SAP - Free Report) — release earnings in the week to come.
The influence of big tech firms on the overall market is a talking point. After all, stellar gains in U.S. Big Tech, led by AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) , have skewed the overall performance picture for the S&P500 and much rides on their results.
The S&P is up +17% this year, but an equivalent equal-weight index (EWGSPC) is up just +3.8%.
No doubt, market breadth is a factor in Europe too.
Europe's equity market may be smaller than the U.S., but the love is spread more widely.
(3) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) keeps its policy rate steady.
The ECB is all but certain to keep rates steady on Thursday, a month after its first rate cut in five years.
Attention is on whether policymakers say more about further rate cuts.
Eurozone inflation eased for the first time in three months in June, but rose in the dominant services sector, where it has not dropped this year.
Some policymakers felt uneasy about June's rate cut, regretting committing weeks in advance.
So officials are in no hurry to flag what's next, and will scrutinize data out before the September meeting.
No doubt, ECB President Christine Lagarde will be quizzed about whether the bank is ready to step in and buy French and other government bonds in the event of further turmoil.
That looks unlikely unless there are much bigger market swings, or serious contagion to other countries' debt.
(4) In the U.K., the King’s speech announces the full Labour legislative agenda.
King Charles will announce the full legislative agenda of the new government of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 1200 GMT on Wednesday.
But investors are likely to be watching more keenly for inflation data out earlier that day.
Headline inflation eased back to the Bank of England's 2% target in May but policymakers are watching services prices most closely — they've been rising nearly 6% in annual terms.
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said he was unlikely to be swayed by one set of data, puncturing bets in financial markets on a rate cut as soon as the BoE's next scheduled monetary policy announcement on Aug. 1st.
The latest U.K. jobs data on Thursday will also be key for the BoE, which is worried about the strong pace of wage growth.
(5) On Monday, China’s 3rd plenum, an event held every five years, kicks off.
China's third plenum, a seminal event typically held every five years and originally expected late last year, kicks off on Monday.
Reforms top the agenda: they could include the most significant overhaul of the fiscal system in three decades to try to redirect income from Beijing to cash-strapped regional governments.
A parade of top-tier Chinese data releases meanwhile spans GDP, retail sales and industrial output.
While strong exports provided respite in the first half, sluggish domestic demand and a shrinking property sector could prove challenging for the rest of the year.
Deflation is a worry, and central bank efforts to support long-term bond yields could also hamper growth.
Still, investors are hopeful that new stimulus can lift market sentiment. Chinese blue chips (CSI300) have edged higher, after notching up seven straight weeks of losses.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
(1) Vertex Pharma (VRTX - Free Report) : This is a $492 stock with a market cap of $127B. It is found in the Medical-Biomedical and Genetics industry in the USA. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Boston, MA-based Vertex Pharmaceuticals is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of small molecule drugs targeting serious diseases.
The company’s main area of focus is cystic fibrosis (CF).
The company’s lead marketed products are:
They are collectively approved to treat nearly 75% of the 92,000 people with CF in North America, Europe and Australia.
Trikafta/Kaftrio (brand name of Trikafta in EU), Vertex’s triple combination regimen, is approved for the treatment of CF in people aged 2 years and older who have at least one F508del mutation in the United States and for CF patients aged 6 and above in countries outside the United States.
In 2023/early 2024, Vertex received regulatory approvals for its one-shot gene therapy Casgevy for treating two debilitating blood disorders, sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT), in the United States and European Union and some other countries like Great Britain, Bahrain and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
While CF remains the main area of focus, Vertex is also developing treatments for
Pimodivir/VX-787, for the treatment of influenza, was out-licensed to Janssen in 2014 while oncology candidates VX-970, VX-984 and VX-803 were divested to Merck KGaA in 2017.
(2) EssilorLuxxottica (ESLOY - Free Report) : This is a $109 stock with a market cap of $99.3B. It is found in the Medical Products industry in the USA. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
EssilorLuxottica Societe is involved in the design, manufacture, and distribution of ophthalmic lenses, frames and sunglasses.
The company's brand portfolio consists of:
EssilorLuxottica Societe, formerly known as Essilor International Societe Anonyme, is based in Paris, France.
(3) WalMart de Mexico WMMVY: This is a $37 stock with a market cap of $64.1B. It is found in the Retail-Supermarkets industry in Mexico. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
WalMart de Mexico-ADR operates 587 commercial units, including self-service stores, department, and restaurants.
Key Global Macro
On Monday, Mainland China’s GDP for Q2 came out, reaching +4.7% — below the +5.1% analysts were anticipating. The prior y/y reading was +5.2%.
There is also the start of a 2-day Eurogroup meeting.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) core CPI for June comes out. The prior reading was +1.8% y/y, while the broad CPI was up +2.9% y/y.
U.S. retail sales for June should be up +0.1% m/m, but the ex-Autos number could be down -0.1% m/m. That is static retail sales growth for you.
On Wednesday, the U.K. CPI data for June comes out. The prior broad reading was +2.0% y/y, while the core CPI there was +3.5% y/y.
In the Eurozone, the core HICP for June also comes out. The prior broad Euro Area HICP was +2.5% y/y, while the core was up +2.9% y/y.
U.S. housing starts for June (1.277M in the prior month) and building permits for June (1.399M in the prior month) come out.
The Fed’s latest Beige Book of regional economic conditions arrives.
On Thursday, the U.K.’s ILO unemployment gets an update for May. The prior reading was 4.4%.
There will be an ECB monetary policy statement. Their main refi rate is at 4.25%, and it should remain steady, after this meeting.
On Friday, U.K. retail sales for June come out. I see +1.3% y/y is the U.K.’s prior broad reading. Ex-fuel U.K. retail? I see a +1.2% y/y prior reading.
Canada’s retail sales for May comes out. I see a +0.7% m/m prior print. Ex-autos retail in Canada? +1.8% m/m.
Canada’s raw material price index for June is also out. The prior reading is -1.0% y/y.
Conclusion
As usual during a live earnings season, we conclude with the Q2-24 S&P500 tally.
What Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian had for traders, on July 10th—
(1) For Q2-24, Zacks expects S&P500 earnings to be up +8.0% from the same period last year on +4.6% higher revenues.
This will be the highest earnings growth rate since a +9.9% growth rate, seen in Q1-22.
(2) Earnings growth for the Energy sector is on track to turn positive in Q2-24, after remaining in negative territory, over the preceding four quarters.
(3) Zacks expects Q2-24 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ companies to be up +25.5% from the same period last year, on +13.2% higher revenues.
Exclude the ‘Mag 7’?
Q2-24 earnings growth for the rest of the index drops to +4.3% (from +8.0%).
(4) For the 19 S&P500 members that have reported quarterly results for their fiscal quarters ending in May 2024? Total earnings are up +25.7% from the same period last year, on +4.4% higher revenues.
84.2% beat EPS estimates. Only 36.8% beat revenue estimates.
Now, with that latest Zacks earnings data in hand?
Have an excellent trading week!
Warm regards,
John Blank, PhD
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist