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Freshpet and CF Industries have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – July 16, 2024 – Zacks Equity Research shares Freshpet (FRPT - Free Report) as the Bull of the Day and CF Industries (CF) asthe Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC - Free Report) and Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV - Free Report) .

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Freshpet (FRPT - Free Report) , a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), is a pet food company that manufactures, distributes, and markets meals and treats for dogs and cats. Renewed strength in the consumer staples sector provides a durable backing for this industry leader. Freshpet shares have begun to display relative strength, recently surging to 52-week highs. Increasing volume has attracted investor attention as buying pressure accumulates in this top-ranked stock.

Freshpet is part of the Zacks Food – Miscellaneous industry group, which currently ranks in the top 43% out of more than 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. Because it is ranked in the top half of all Zacks Ranked Industries, we expect this group to outperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months.

This industry contains stocks that are currently undervalued based on traditional metrics.

Quantitative research studies suggest that approximately half of a stock’s price appreciation is due to its industry grouping. In fact, the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

It’s no secret that investing in stocks that are part of leading industry groups can give us a leg up relative to the market. By focusing on leading stocks within the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries, we can dramatically improve our stock-picking success.

Company Description

Freshpet provides a variety of natural foods and refrigerated meals in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company offers meat-based products such as chicken and beef; vegetable products such as carrots and leafy greens; and high-fiber products such as brown rice and oats.

The pet food retailer prides itself on high quality proteins and farm-fresh fruits and vegetables. Their healthy meals are steam-cooked, locking in vital nutrients as opposed to other cooking methods. Under the oversight of their veterinary nutritionists, Freshpet ensures its meals are prepared according to the highest food safety standards.

The Secaucus, New Jersey-based company sells its products under the Freshpet, Dognation, and Dog Joy labels through various retail channels including grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, as well as online.

Earnings Trends and Future Estimates

Freshpet has put together an impressive earnings history, surpassing earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. Back in May, the company reported first-quarter earnings of $0.21/share, a 195.5% surprise over the -$0.22/share consensus estimate. Freshpet has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 118.2%.

FRPT stock received a boost as analysts covering the company have been increasing their 2024 earnings estimates lately. For the full year, earnings estimates have risen 45.95% in the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate now stands at $0.54/share, reflecting a potential growth rate of 177.1% relative to the prior year. Revenues are projected to climb 24.8% to $957.4 million.

Let’s Get Technical

This market leader has seen its stock advance nearly 50% in 2024 alone. Only stocks that are in extremely powerful uptrends are able to experience this type of outperformance. This is the kind of stock we want to include in our portfolio – one that is trending well and receiving positive earnings estimate revisions.

With positive fundamental and technical indicators, FRPT stock is poised to continue its outperformance.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. As we know, Freshpet has recently witnessed positive revisions. As long as this trend remains intact (and Freshpet continues to deliver earnings beats), the stock will likely continue its bullish run this year.

Bottom Line

Freshpet is ranked favorably by our Zacks Style Scores, with a best-in-class ‘A’ rating in our Momentum category and a second-best ‘B’ rating in our Growth category. This indicates that FRPT stock is likely to continue its strong momentum based on a favorable combination of earnings and sales growth.

Backed by a top industry group and an impressive history of earnings beats, it’s not difficult to see why this company is a compelling investment. Robust fundamentals combined with an appealing technical trend certainly justify adding shares to the mix. The future looks bright for this highly-ranked, leading stock.

Bear of the Day:

CF Industries is a global manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizer. The company manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for fertilizer, energy, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities.

Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, and ammonium nitrate. The company primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, wholesalers, and industrial users. CF Industries was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, IL.

The Zacks Rundown

CF Industries, a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a component of the Zacks Fertilizers industry group, which currently ranks in the bottom 22% out of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. As such, we expect this industry group as a whole to underperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months – just as it has year-to-date.

Candidates in the bottom tiers of industries can often be solid potential short candidates. While individual stocks have the ability to outperform even when included in a lackluster industry, the inclusion in a weaker group serves as a headwind for any potential rallies and the journey forward is that much more difficult.

Along with many other fertilizer stocks, CF stock experienced a climax top in 2022 amid the peak in inflation and has been in a price downtrend ever since. The stock is hitting a series of lower lows and represents a compelling short opportunity as we move into the latter half of the year.

Recent Earnings Misses & Deteriorating Outlook

CF Industries has fallen short of earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters. Back in May, the company reported first-quarter earnings of $1.03/share, missing the $1.47/share Zacks Consensus estimate by -29.93%.

CF Industries has posted an average earnings miss of -4.6% over the last four quarters. Consistently falling short of earnings estimates is a recipe for underperformance, and CF is no exception.

The fertilizer company has been on the receiving end of negative earnings estimate revisions as of late. For the most recent quarter, analysts have decreased estimates by -2.08% in the past 60 days. The Q2 Zacks Consensus Estimate is now $1.88/share, reflecting negative growth of -30.37% relative to the year-ago period.

Falling earnings estimates are a huge red flag and need to be respected. Negative growth year-over-year is the type of trend that bears like to see.

The company faces headwinds from lower nitrogen prices. Higher global supply availability, driven by higher global operating rates, has resulted in a decline in prices. The weak pricing environment is expected to continue, dampening company sales and margins.

Technical Outlook

As illustrated below, CF stock is in a sustained downtrend. Notice how the stock has plunged below both the 50-day (blue line) and 200-day moving averages (red line). The stock is making a series of lower lows, with no respite from the selling in sight. Also note how both moving averages are sloping down – another good sign for the bears.

While not the most accurate indicator, CF has also experienced what is known as a “death cross,” whereby the stock’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. CF Industries would have to make an outsized move to the upside and show increasing earnings estimate revisions to warrant taking any long positions in the stock. The stock has fallen more than 10% this year alone.

Final Thoughts

A deteriorating fundamental and technical backdrop show that this stock is not set to make new highs anytime soon. The fact that CF Industries is included in one of the worst-performing industry groups provides yet another headwind to a long list of concerns. A history of earnings misses and falling future earnings estimates will likely serve as a ceiling to any potential rallies, nurturing the stock’s downtrend.

Potential investors may want to give this stock the cold shoulder, or perhaps include it as part of a short or hedge strategy. Bulls will want to steer clear of CF until the situation shows major signs of improvement.

Additional content:

Rise in Rate-Cut Bets May Prompt Stock Gains for GOLD, KGC, FNV

Gold prices plunged below the $1,650 mark by the end of 2022 but recovered and settled above $2,000 an ounce last year amid geopolitical unrest and recession apprehensions. In 2024, gold prices have remained bullish so far as central banks across the globe have shown interest in acquiring the yellow metal.

An uptick in consumer demand is surely expected to boost the price of the bullion metal further, with market pundits projecting gold prices to scale above $3,000 an ounce by 2025. Gold prices are currently hovering well above the $2,400 mark and are looking forward to entering another growth phase buoyed by interest rate cut optimism.

The slowdown in price pressures and soft economic data bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive in the latter part of the year, a blessing in disguise for gold prices vis-à-vis gold mining stocks such as Barrick Gold Corp.Kinross Gold Corp. and Franco-Nevada Corp.

Inflation Ebbing

The monthly consumer prices dipped in June for the first time since the pandemic in 2020, with the consumer price index (CPI) declining 0.1% after remaining flat in May, per the Labor Department. Year-over-year, the CPI slowed to 3% in June from 3.3% in May. The 12-month rate is now at its lowest level since April 2021.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditure index, was unchanged in May, a tell-tale sign that inflationary pressure is losing its tight grip on the economy.

Weak Economic Data

Economic growth, meanwhile, lost momentum at the end of the second quarter. A sharp decline in orders led to a slump in service sector activity, with the non-manufacturing PMI plunging to a four-year low in June.

Manufacturing activity also contracted for the third successive month in June. Softening demand for goods took a toll on manufacturing activity despite improvements in business investment.

Slowdown in Job Additions

The Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the jobless rate jumped to its highest in June since October 2021. This is an indication that the labor market is cooling down.

The unemployment rate, which includes part-time jobs and discouraged workers, continues to be at elevated levels, while job additions dipped in June from the prior month.

Odds of a Fed Rate Cut Rise

Interest rates, at the moment, are at record-high levels to curb the relentless rise in the cost of consumer goods and services. However, with inflation ebbing amid a slowdown in economic growth, the Fed is expected to trim rates as early as fall.

Market participants are now expecting at least two rate cuts by the end of this year, while the odds of a September rate cut by a quarter-point have now gone up by 88% compared to a probability of 52% a month ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Rate Cuts Are a Boon for GOLD, KGC, FNV

In a low-interest-rate environment, fixed-income investments such as bonds will lose their attractiveness as money will flow out of such high-yielding investments and into gold. This, in turn, will lead to a jack-up in the price of the yellow metal and improve the profit margins of gold mining stocks, including Barrick Gold, Kinross Gold and Franco-Nevada. These stocks, currently, possess a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Barrick Gold

Barrick Gold is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world and has operations in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has increased 5.9% over the past 60 days. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 27.4%.

Kinross Gold

Kinross Gold has major assets in Canada and the United States. Kinross Gold is engaged in the exploration of gold mines. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has increased 6.1% over the past 60 days. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 18.2%.

Franco-Nevada

Franco-Nevada operates as a gold-focused royalty and stream company. It holds interest in several energy assets worldwide, including the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has increased 2.5% over the past 60 days. The company’s expected earnings growth rate for next year is 9.5%.

Shares of Barrick Gold, Kinross Gold and Franco-Nevada have gained 2.4%, 52.2%, and 16.5%, respectively, so far this year.

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