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Do Strong Volume Warrant Q2 Earnings Beat for Boston Beer (SAM)?

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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2024 results on Jul 25. In the second quarter, the company is anticipated to have registered bottom-line growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figures.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.96 per share, suggesting growth of 5.1% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark for earnings has declined 2.4% in the past 30 days. For quarterly revenues, the consensus estimate is pegged at $595.2 million, suggesting a 1.4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

In the last reported quarter, SAM delivered a significant earnings beat. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 167.3%, on average.

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. price-eps-surprise | The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Note

Boston Beer’s second-quarter 2024 results are expected to reflect trends in volumes (both shipments and depletions), pricing and margin performance. The company has lately been witnessing improved volumes and favorable pricing, which aided its first-quarter 2024 revenues. We anticipate the robust volume trends to have continued in the second quarter, driven by the continued momentum in the Twisted Tea brand, efforts to maintain the relevance of its core brands, and appropriate distributor inventory levels for each of its brands at the end of the first quarter.

In its efforts to deliver sustainable volume growth, SAM has been focused on initiatives to nurture and protect its core brands with expectations to reach their full potential and continue driving innovation through its Beyond Beer initiative. These efforts are expected to have driven category growth in the second quarter, aiding volumes.

Additionally, the momentum for Boston Beer’s Twisted Tea, the original hard tea brand, is likely to have continued in the second quarter. The company has been focusing on increasing the brand’s distribution and retaining its strong sales per point, which should bolster volume and revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.

On its last earnings call, the company indicated that its revenue performance depends on seasonal volume changes and the timing of shipments. While shipment was higher than depletions in the first quarter, SAM expects the trends to rebalance in the second quarter. This is expected to have resulted in lower shipment trends than depletions in the second quarter.

On the operational front, Boston Beer has been benefiting from strong price realization, including gains from lower returns, procurement savings and improved brewery performance on higher volumes, more than offsetting the increased inflationary costs. These trends are expected to have continued to bolster gross margin in the second quarter.

However, the company’s gross margin in recent quarters reflects the impacts of shortfall fees and third-party production prepayments, which are expected to have continued in the second quarter. This is likely to have offset growth in the gross margin in the to-be-reported quarter.

Additionally, the company’s second-quarter results are expected to reflect the persistent impacts of the slowdown in the hard seltzer category, which has been weighing on the performance of its Truly brand. The company expects the hard-seltzer category to remain under pressure, resulting in category volume declines throughout 2024. These are expected to have impacted the overall volume trends in the second quarter.

What Does the Zacks Model Say?

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Boston Beer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Boston Beer has an Earnings ESP of +15.08% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

Philip Morris International (PM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.42% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is expected to register top-line growth when it reports second-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $9.1 billion, which suggests growth of 1.8% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Philip Morris’ quarterly earnings has moved down 1.3% in the past 30 days to $1.55 per share. The consensus mark for earnings suggests a decline of 3.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. PM has delivered an earnings surprise of 3.2%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Colgate-Palmolive (CL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.97% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is slated to witness top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CL’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5 billion, which suggests growth of 4% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Colgate’s quarterly earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days at 87 cents per share. The consensus mark for earnings suggests growth of 13% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. CL has delivered an earnings surprise of 4.4%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Kimberly-Clark (KMB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.52% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is expected to witness bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KMB’s quarterly earnings has moved up by a penny in the past 30 days to $1.68 per share. The consensus mark for earnings suggests 1.8% growth from that reported in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate Kimberly-Clark’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.1 billion, which indicates a decline of 1.1% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. KMB has delivered an earnings surprise of 11.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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