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What's in Store for Valero Energy (VLO) in Q2 Earnings?

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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2024 results on Jul 25, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, Valero Energy’s adjusted earnings of $3.82 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.18 due to a decline in total cost of sales. Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 12.14%. This is depicted in the graph below: 

Valero Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Valero Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Valero Energy Corporation price-eps-surprise | Valero Energy Corporation Quote

Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share of $3.80 has witnessed four downward revisions and no upward revision in the past seven days. The estimated figure suggests a decline of 29.63% from the prior-year reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $34.37 billion indicates a 0.40% decline from the year-ago recorded figure.

Factors to Consider

Valero Energy is expected to have maintained a stable performance in the second quarter, driven by an increased demand for transportation fuels due to travel rebound. This surge in demand is likely to have enhanced VLO's profitability, as it is anticipated to have maintained high refinery utilization rates, optimizing production and reducing per-unit costs.

However, challenges might have risen from refining margins being under pressure due to higher crude oil prices outpacing increases in refined product prices. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, spot prices for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil rose 11.3% (in second-quarter 2024) from the prior-year reported figure. This squeeze in margins might have negatively impacted the company’s profitability.

These factors are anticipated to have affected demand and pricing dynamics, potentially hampering Valero Energy’s quarterly performance.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for VLO this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Valero Energy has an Earnings ESP of -5.73%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: VLO currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are three firms that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Sunoco LP (SUN - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.96% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Sunoco is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug 7. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SUN’s earnings is pegged at $1.79 per share, suggesting a 129.5% increase from the prior-year reported figure.

Viper Energy Inc. (VNOM - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +10.44% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Viper Energy is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Aug 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VNOM’s earnings is pegged at 43 cents per share, suggesting an 8.5% decline from the prior-year reported figure.

Baker Hughes (BKR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.75% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Baker Hughes is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Jul 25. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BKR’s earnings is pegged at 49 cents per share, suggesting a 25.6% improvement from the prior-year reported figure.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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