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What's in Store for Cincinnati Financial (CINF) in Q2 Earnings?
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Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2024 earnings on Jul 25, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings surprise in the last four reported quarters.
Factors to Note
Premiums are likely to have benefited from improved exposure, better pricing, increased property casualty agency and new business written premiums, higher standard lines new business, and higher premiums from Cincinnati Re. We expect earned premiums to be $2.2 billion, up 12.2% from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.2 billion.
Premiums at Personal Lines are likely to have benefited from high net worth clients and an agent-centric model. An increase in agency new business and renewal written premiums are likely to have aided Excess and Surplus lines premiums. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excess and Surplus lines revenues is pegged at $152.6 million.
Net investment income is likely to have improved on strong cash flow from operating activities coupled with an improved rate environment, as well as an increase in interest income from fixed-maturity securities. We expect investment income to be $246.2 million, up 11.9% from the year-ago reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.5 billion, suggesting an increase of 12.7% from the prior-year quarter.
Total benefits and expenses are likely to have increased mainly due to higher insurance losses and contract holders’ benefits and higher underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, as well as other operating expenses. We expect total expenses to rise 4.8% to $2.1 billion.
The company’s second-quarter performance is likely to have suffered from catastrophe losses stemming from convective storms. Despite catastrophe losses that induce volatility in profits, better pricing is likely to have limited the downside. We expect the combined ratio to deteriorate 250 basis points to 100.1 in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 97 cents, indicating a decrease of 19.8% from the prior-year quarter.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cincinnati Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: Cincinnati Financial has an Earnings ESP of -1.80%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 95 cents is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Here are three insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.16, indicating a year-over-year increase of 12.5%%.
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
First American Financial (FAF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.46% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.13, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 16.3%.
FAF’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters and missed in the other two.
Fidelity National Financial (FNF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.61% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.27, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 25.7%.
FNF earnings beat estimates in one of the last four reported quarters and missed in the other three.
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What's in Store for Cincinnati Financial (CINF) in Q2 Earnings?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2024 earnings on Jul 25, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings surprise in the last four reported quarters.
Factors to Note
Premiums are likely to have benefited from improved exposure, better pricing, increased property casualty agency and new business written premiums, higher standard lines new business, and higher premiums from Cincinnati Re. We expect earned premiums to be $2.2 billion, up 12.2% from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.2 billion.
Premiums at Personal Lines are likely to have benefited from high net worth clients and an agent-centric model. An increase in agency new business and renewal written premiums are likely to have aided Excess and Surplus lines premiums. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excess and Surplus lines revenues is pegged at $152.6 million.
Net investment income is likely to have improved on strong cash flow from operating activities coupled with an improved rate environment, as well as an increase in interest income from fixed-maturity securities. We expect investment income to be $246.2 million, up 11.9% from the year-ago reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.5 billion, suggesting an increase of 12.7% from the prior-year quarter.
Total benefits and expenses are likely to have increased mainly due to higher insurance losses and contract holders’ benefits and higher underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, as well as other operating expenses. We expect total expenses to rise 4.8% to $2.1 billion.
The company’s second-quarter performance is likely to have suffered from catastrophe losses stemming from convective storms. Despite catastrophe losses that induce volatility in profits, better pricing is likely to have limited the downside. We expect the combined ratio to deteriorate 250 basis points to 100.1 in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 97 cents, indicating a decrease of 19.8% from the prior-year quarter.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cincinnati Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: Cincinnati Financial has an Earnings ESP of -1.80%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 95 cents is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Cincinnati Financial Corporation price-eps-surprise | Cincinnati Financial Corporation Quote
Zacks Rank: Cincinnati Financial currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are three insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:
Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $2.16, indicating a year-over-year increase of 12.5%%.
ACGL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
First American Financial (FAF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.46% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.13, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 16.3%.
FAF’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters and missed in the other two.
Fidelity National Financial (FNF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.61% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.27, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 25.7%.
FNF earnings beat estimates in one of the last four reported quarters and missed in the other three.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.