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Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Drops 20% YTD: Time to Buy or Be Cautious?

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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) leaves investors disheartened with its lackluster stock performance this year, falling short of the industry and the S&P 500. The company's struggles across all three of its key markets have been a significant drag on its stock.

Year to date, Starbucks' stock has declined by 20.2% compared with the industry’s 9.4% drop. In sharp contrast, the S&P 500 increased 15.8% during the same period. As of Jul 22, the stock closed at $76.55, significantly below its 52-week high of $107.66 but above its 52-week low of $71.55. The company also underperformed other industry players like McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) , down 12.5%, Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) , down 1.6%, and Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) , up 0.8%, year to date.

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Estimate Movement

Estimates for SBUX’s 2024 earnings have moved down from $3.59 to $3.57 in the past 60 days. The company’s earnings and sales in 2024 are expected to witness growth of 0.9% and 2.1%, respectively, year over year.

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What’s Hurting SBUX?

Starbucks is grappling with the aftermath of a slower-than-anticipated recovery in China. Lower consumer visits to its restaurants are a major issue, leading to a significant reduction in traffic. The growth rate of active members in its loyalty program slowed to 6%, one of the lowest rates seen in years. In China, sales have been particularly troubling, with a 4% drop in store traffic due to weak consumer spending in the market.

Also, it is facing intense competition from value-focused players in the market. In second-quarter fiscal 2024, global comparable store sales declined 4% year over year. The downside was due to a 6% fall in comparable transactions.

During the quarter, North America and International comps declined 3% and 6%, respectively, year over year. In North America, consumer caution and deteriorating economic conditions led to reduced customer traffic, particularly among occasional visitors. Economic volatility in the Middle East and market headwinds in Indonesia and Malaysia exacerbated the challenges Starbucks faces globally.

These factors have led the company to adjust its growth expectations. SBUX anticipates 2024 global and U.S. comparable sales growth to range from a low-single-digit decline to flat, a notable reduction from the previous expectation of 4-6% growth. The company projects a 12% decline in China’s comparable sales from the prior year levels.

Can the Stock Stage a Comeback?

Although SBUX’s dismal performance in China is hurting, the region presents a promising long-term growth opportunity for Starbucks. It is likely to continue its aggressive store expansion in this market. There is potential for China to eventually surpass the United States in terms of the number of stores, sales and profits.

In its China strategy, SBUX focused on three main aspects. Firstly, Starbucks introduced more coffee options tailored to local preferences and boosted its social media presence through influences and partnerships, enhancing customer engagement. Secondly, it invested in technology to expand its omni-channel capabilities, improving efficiency in the supply chain and stores. It also prioritized opening new stores in smaller markets for better economics. The company remains confident in its long-term growth strategy.

In the first and the second quarter of fiscal 2024, Starbucks opened 169 and 115 new stores, respectively. The company operates 7,093 stores in the country. Given the remarkable financial returns from the new stores, it is confident in reaching its goal of 9,000 stores in China by 2025.

Apart from menu innovation, the company indulges in other investments that reduce manual labor and increase efficiency. During first-quarter fiscal 2024, Starbucks mentioned staying on track to have around 10% of its stores equipped with a Siren System by the year-end. It continued installing Clover Vertica in nearly 10% of its U.S. company-operated stores in the quarter. Starbucks also aims to have on-demand single-cup brewers installed in nearly 60% of its U.S. company-operated stores by the fiscal 2024. This initiative will enhance Starbucks’ coffee offerings and increase partner productivity by reducing waste and enhancing in-store operations.

Starbucks is enhancing convenience for its customers through several initiatives, including mobile order and pay, curbside pick-up in the United States and delivery services in China. Its personalization and rewards programs are designed to foster customer loyalty. These technological advancements and loyalty incentives will contribute to sustained sales growth and increased customer retention over the long term.

Attractive Valuation

SBUX offers an attractive valuation for potential investors. Currently, Starbucks shares trade at 19.52 times forward earnings, below the industry average of 21.76 and its one-year median of 21.70.

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Wrapping Up

Starbucks faces near-term challenges. Its strategic initiatives and long-term growth potential, particularly in China, present compelling reasons for investors to retain the stock. The attractive valuation offers a potential buying opportunity once the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company's performance stabilizes. However, given the current economic uncertainties, new investors should consider waiting for a more favorable entry point.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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