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Flat Trading Day Ahead of Key Q2, Econ Reports

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Monday, July 29th, 2024

The first trading day of the week was flat. It didn’t look like it was starting out that way, with pre-market futures well into the green — continuing Friday’s rally for the full trading day. But around lunchtime, three of the four major indices went to zero and the small-cap Russell 2000 sank below it and never recovered. The Dow was down -0.12% today, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up +0.08% and +0.07%, respectively. The Russell dove -1.02% by the closing bell.

As we said this morning, it is a consequential week of trading, just not yet. We’ll have to wait til tomorrow for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June — marking the first of the Jobs Week numbers which concludes Friday morning with the Employment Situation report from the U.S. government. We’ll also see new Consumer Confidence numbers for July and Case-Shiller home prices for May. Tuesday will also be the first day of the new Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which concludes Wednesday afternoon when Fed Chair Jerome Powell again tells us why they’re not raising interest rates yet.

We’re now getting to a key point in the Fed’s plan. With employment decelerating from the robust highs of a year or two ago, and inflation metrics moving rather steadily down toward the ideal +2%, the trick will be whether the Fed will cut rates at the right time. Too early and, like in the 1970s and early ’80s, we saw inflation rekindle and surge past prior highs; too late and we risk burrowing into recession with higher unemployment and still-high interest rate levels. And if July is not quite the right time, we expect Powell to explain why the Fed will make its first move in several years at the September meeting.

Seattle-based F5 (FFIV - Free Report) shares are up +10% in the after-market. The Internet networking company posted fiscal Q3 earnings of $3.36 per share, above the $2.97 analysts were expecting and the $3.21 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Revenues came in at $695 million, neatly above the $686 million expected. Next-quarter guides have both improved, to $3.38-3.50 in next-quarter earnings on $720-740 million in sales — both improvements on the $3.32 per share and $715 million previously expected.

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC - Free Report) missed Q2 estimates after the closing bell. Earnings of 23 cents per share missed the Zacks consensus by a penny, while revenues of $124 million came up short of the $130 million anticipated. Revenue guidance was also lowered, to a range of $117-137 million from the previously projected $142.4 million. This is the first earnings miss for Lattice since 2018. Shares have fallen -10% in late trading.

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM - Free Report) , a grocer chain based in Phoenix, is having the best post-earnings rally of all. Shares are up +13% on sizable beats on both top and bottom lines: earnings of 94 cents per share trounced the 77 cents in the Zacks consensus, with revenues of $1.89 billion improving from the $1.83 billion estimate. Next-quarter and full-year earnings guidance has ramped up, as a result. Sprouts shares are now +85% year to date, including this afternoon’s buy-in.

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