Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Home Depot?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Home Depot (HD Quick QuoteHD - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.61 a share 13 days away from its upcoming earnings release on August 13, 2024.

By taking the percentage difference between the $4.61 Most Accurate Estimate and the $4.60 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Home Depot has an Earnings ESP of +0.29%. Investors should also know that HD is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

HD is just one of a large group of Retail and Wholesale stocks with a positive ESP figure. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF Quick QuoteANF - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Abercrombie & Fitch is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on August 28, 2024. ANF's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.30 a share 28 days from its next earnings release.

Abercrombie & Fitch's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +9.09% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.11.

HD and ANF's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>