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Can Amgen (AMGN) Keep the Beat Streak Alive in Q2 Earnings?
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We expect Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports second-quarter 2024 results on Aug 6, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 5.32%.
Factors to Consider
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amgen’s total revenues is $8.30 billion. Amgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like Evenity, Repatha, Prolia and Kyprolis, among others. However, prices of most products are expected to have declined due to higher rebates to support expanded access.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity and Kyprolis sales is pegged at $1.1 billion, $529.0 million, $367.0 million and $374.0 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity and Kyprolis sales are pegged at $1.08 billion, $521.1 million, $349.8 million and $376.4 million, respectively.
In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth driven by new patient volume growth. Like the previous quarters, Tezspire volumes are likely to have benefited from the launch of a self-administered, pre-filled, single-use pen formulation of the drug.
Our estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are pegged at $232.8 million and $58.0 million, respectively.
Enbrel sales are likely to have declined due to volume declines. Otezla sales were soft in the first quarter. It remains to be seen if sales improved in the second quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $594.0 million, while our estimate is $544.8 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $949.0 million, while our estimate is $963.5 million.
Sales of Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, acquired from the October 2023 acquisition of Horizon, are likely to have pulled up the top line.
However, lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) and legacy established products are expected to have hurt the top line.
Operating costs are expected to have increased on expenses for Horizon-acquired products. Adjusted operating margin is expected to have improved from first-quarter levels.
Earnings Surprise History
This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in all the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.42%, on average.
Amgen’s stock has risen 16% so far this year against an increase of 0.1% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +0.48% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.95 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.92. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3 currently.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Exelixis’ stock has declined 3% year to date. Exelixis beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in the other two. EXEL has a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 8.28%, on average. Exelixis is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 6.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.06% and a Zacks Rank #3.
BioMarin’s stock has lost 12.5% year to date. BMRN beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while meeting the mark on the remaining occasion. On average, BioMarin witnessed an earnings surprise of 11.15% in the last four quarters. BMRN will report second-quarter 2024 results on Aug 5.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +26.98% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Apellis’ stock has lost 34.5% year to date. APLS missed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, met the mark once and beat the same on another occasion. On average, Apellis delivered a negative earnings surprise of 6.37% in the last four quarters. APLS will report second-quarter results on Aug 1.
Image: Shutterstock
Can Amgen (AMGN) Keep the Beat Streak Alive in Q2 Earnings?
We expect Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports second-quarter 2024 results on Aug 6, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 5.32%.
Factors to Consider
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amgen’s total revenues is $8.30 billion. Amgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like Evenity, Repatha, Prolia and Kyprolis, among others. However, prices of most products are expected to have declined due to higher rebates to support expanded access.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity and Kyprolis sales is pegged at $1.1 billion, $529.0 million, $367.0 million and $374.0 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity and Kyprolis sales are pegged at $1.08 billion, $521.1 million, $349.8 million and $376.4 million, respectively.
In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth driven by new patient volume growth. Like the previous quarters, Tezspire volumes are likely to have benefited from the launch of a self-administered, pre-filled, single-use pen formulation of the drug.
Our estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are pegged at $232.8 million and $58.0 million, respectively.
Enbrel sales are likely to have declined due to volume declines. Otezla sales were soft in the first quarter. It remains to be seen if sales improved in the second quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $594.0 million, while our estimate is $544.8 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $949.0 million, while our estimate is $963.5 million.
Sales of Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, acquired from the October 2023 acquisition of Horizon, are likely to have pulled up the top line.
However, lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) and legacy established products are expected to have hurt the top line.
Operating costs are expected to have increased on expenses for Horizon-acquired products. Adjusted operating margin is expected to have improved from first-quarter levels.
Earnings Surprise History
This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in all the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.42%, on average.
Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote
Amgen’s stock has risen 16% so far this year against an increase of 0.1% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +0.48% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.95 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.92. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3 currently.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Exelixis (EXEL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.95% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Exelixis’ stock has declined 3% year to date. Exelixis beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing in the other two. EXEL has a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 8.28%, on average. Exelixis is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug 6.
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.06% and a Zacks Rank #3.
BioMarin’s stock has lost 12.5% year to date. BMRN beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while meeting the mark on the remaining occasion. On average, BioMarin witnessed an earnings surprise of 11.15% in the last four quarters. BMRN will report second-quarter 2024 results on Aug 5.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +26.98% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Apellis’ stock has lost 34.5% year to date. APLS missed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, met the mark once and beat the same on another occasion. On average, Apellis delivered a negative earnings surprise of 6.37% in the last four quarters. APLS will report second-quarter results on Aug 1.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.