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What's in the Offing for Upstart (UPST) This Earnings Season?

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Upstart Holdings (UPST - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2024 results on Aug 6, after market close.

For the second quarter, the company expects revenues of approximately $125 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $125.16 million, suggesting a decline of 7.81% year over year.

The consensus mark is pegged at a loss of 39 cents per share. The figure suggests a significant decline from the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 6 cents.

UPST’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the same on one occasion, the average surprise being 23.8%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Upstart Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Upstart Holdings, Inc. Quote

Factors to Consider

Headwinds from the weakening lending market due to elevated consumer risk caused by multiple bank failures and the dislocation of capital markets might have affected Upstart’s revenues in the second quarter. The volatility in the macro environment caused by global geopolitical tension is expected to have hurt UPST’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The instability of the macroeconomic landscape, coupled with the growing conservatism among lenders, is likely to have resulted in heightened loan pricing within Upstart’s platform and decreased approval rates for loan applicants. Consequently, this is expected to have diminished transaction volume and affected UPST’s revenue stream.

However, Upstart’s second-quarter performance is likely to have gained from its strategy to operate as a multiproduct company. Innovative product launches like the Upstart Macro Index and features like Parallel Timing Curve Calibration and Recognized Customer Personalization to promote improved data-driven decisions among lenders are likely to have favored UPST’s performance.

UPST’s expertise in offering unsecured loans, especially when traditional banks are cautious during a macroeconomic crisis, is likely to have contributed to its customer base. Moreover, Upstart’s ongoing efforts to automate the unsecured loan process are expected to have contributed positively in the to-be-reported quarter.

Upstart is expected to have gained from multiple partnerships with banks and credit unions, including Bank of Elk River, Texans Credit Union, Diamon Credit Union and Seattle Credit Union.

Amid the weakening lending market and macroeconomic headwinds, Upstart is cutting costs by reducing the employee count. This measure is likely to have aided UPST in counterbalancing the all-time high inflation rate that is reducing the volume of transactions on the Upstart platform.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Upstart this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Though UPST currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.55%, it carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

Twilio (TWLO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.34% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. Shares of TWLO have lost 22.2% year to date. The company is set to report second-quarter 2024 results on Aug 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TWLO’s second-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised upward by 2 cents to $3.12 over the past 30 days and indicates an improvement of 15.85% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $4.35 billion, indicating an 8.4% increase from the year-ago quarter.

Apple (AAPL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.23% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. Shares of AAPL have gained 17% year to date. The company is set to report third-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Aug 1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAPL’s third-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised upward by a penny to $1.33 over the past 60 days and indicates an improvement of 5.6% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $83.8 billion, indicating a 2.4% increase from the year-ago quarter.

GoDaddy (GDDY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.08% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. GoDaddy’s shares have gained 36.8% year to date. GDDY is set to report second-quarter 2024 results on Aug 1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GDDY’s second-quarter 2024 earnings has remained unchanged at $1.07 over the past 60 days, indicating an improvement of 69.8% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.11 billion, indicating a 6.3% increase from the year-ago quarter.

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