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Medifast (MED) Q2 Earnings in the Cards: Factors to Watch

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Medifast, Inc. (MED - Free Report) is likely to register a top and bottom-line decline when it reports second-quarter 2024 earnings on Aug 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $160.4 million, which indicates a 45.8% slump from the year-ago period.

The consensus mark for earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 36 cents per share, which suggests a substantial decline of 87% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. MED has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 48.7%, on average.

Factors to Note

Medifast has been encountering difficulties in attracting customers, primarily because of a range of macroeconomic elements, such as the increasing popularity of GLP-1 medications, the rapidly changing economy and shifts in social media algorithms. Undoubtedly, the weight loss market has experienced significant changes over the past 18 months, with the adoption of medically supported weight loss accelerating more rapidly than anticipated.

MEDIFAST INC Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

MEDIFAST INC Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

MEDIFAST INC price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | MEDIFAST INC Quote

Management expects revenues in the range of $150-$170 million for the second quarter of 2024, which reflects continued near-term pressure on customer acquisition stemming from the growth of GLP-1 medications in markets.

Medifast has been battling rising SG&A costs for a while, which is denting its profits. On its last earnings call, management stated that as the operating landscape remains difficult, the company intends to make significant spending to boost customer acquisition.

MED plans to invest roughly $30 million in advertising and other marketing initiatives to enhance the visibility and customer engagement around the OPTAVIA brand and its offerings. These investments in customer acquisition initiatives, coupled with the negative impact of lower volumes on operating leverage, are expected to continue putting pressure on profitability for the remainder of 2024. These factors raise concerns for the second quarter as well.

Medifast expects earnings per share (EPS) in the band of 5-40 cents for the second quarter of 2024. The EPS guidance excludes costs associated with the initiation of a partnership with LifeMD, as well as any gains or losses related to changes in the market price of the company’s LifeMD investment.

Medifast has been focused on its key growth initiatives, including the cultivation of product and program innovation, expansion into diverse market segments and geographies, refinement of coach and client experiences, harnessing in-depth data and insights and streamlining operational efficiency. Gains from these efforts are likely to have contributed to the upcoming results.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Medifast this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Medifast currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), and it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time:

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +21.04% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.  

The company is likely to register a decline in the top line and an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International Flavors’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.82 billion, which indicates a decrease of 3.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for International Flavors’ quarterly earnings of 91 cents suggests an increase of 5.8% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. IFF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.5%, on average.

Freshpet (FRPT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +132.13% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $230.93 billion, which calls for nearly 26% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s bottom line stands at a loss of 9 cents, which implies a 74.3% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s loss of 35 cents per share. However, FRPT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 118.2%, on average.

Coty (COTY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +22.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COTY’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 5 cents per share. The consensus mark for earnings indicates a 400% surge from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.38 billion, which suggests a rise of 1.8% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. COTY delivered a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 22.2%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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