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Blue Bird's (BLBD) Q3 Earnings on Deck: Time to Buy the Stock?
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Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD - Free Report) is slated to release fiscal third-quarter 2024 results on Aug 7, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is 50 cents a share on revenues of $330 million.
The earnings estimate for the fiscal third quarter of 2024 has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 13.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 12.14%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For the current year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD’s revenues is pegged at $1.33 billion, implying a rise of 17.3% year over year. The consensus mark for the 2024 bottom line is $2.88 per share, suggesting a jump of 169.2%. In the trailing four quarters, this school bus manufacturer surpassed EPS estimates on all occasions, with the average earnings surprise being 92.36%.
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Blue Bird this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Blue Bird’s upcoming results are expected to reflect robust demand for school buses. The company ended the second quarter of fiscal 2024 with more than 5,900 units in its order backlog. The company also witnessed strong deliveries of electric-powered buses. It exited the last reported quarter with a backlog of around 500 electric school buses.
Favorable government policies are accelerating the adoption of electric buses. Key initiatives include the EPA’s Clean School Bus Program, offering $5 billion for five years (FY 2022-2026) for zero-emission buses, DOE loans and grants, California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project, New York’s Truck Voucher Incentive Program and Massachusetts’ Electric Vehicle Incentive Program. These are expected to have expanded Blue Bird’s market share in the alternative fuel market.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD’s revenues from buses is pegged at $301 million, implying an uptick from $270.3 million in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for revenues from parts is $29 million, up from $24 million in the fiscal third quarter of 2023.
On the flip side, the company is bearing the brunt of high manufacturing costs and SG&A expenses and the trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. While this might put some pressure on margins, much of it is likely to be offset by strong sales.
Raised forecasts for fiscal 2024 make us optimistic about the upcoming results. BLBD upwardly raised fiscal 2024 revenue forecast to the band of $1.27-$1.32 billion from $1.15-$1.25 billion guided earlier. Adjusted EBITDA is now envisioned to be between $145 million and $165 million, higher than the prior projection of $120-$140 million.
Price and Valuation
Year to date, shares of Blue Bird have rallied roughly 73%, handily outperforming the industry, sector and S&P 500.
YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Competitors like Lion Electric (LEV - Free Report) witnessed a drop of 66% on a year-to-date basis. EV pioneer Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) has moved down 16.5% during the same time period.
From a valuation standpoint, BLBD is trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 1.02, higher than its 5-year median but lower than the industry’s 1.66. The company has a Value Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investor Considerations
This longstanding school bus manufacturer has ventured into innovative automotive technologies, including alternative fuels and electric vehicles. Beyond battery-electric buses, the company also employs gasoline and propane as alternative fuels, with propane gaining recognition and funding from the EPA for its ultra-low emissions. Blue Bird has successfully enhanced operations, increased production efficiency and driven new order growth, solidifying its leadership in alternative-powered buses. These efforts have led to a remarkable turnaround from an $11 million loss in the first quarter of fiscal 2023 to a $26 million profit in the last reported quarter.
BLBD's improved financial performance, manageable debt levels and strategic alignment with market trends indicate a promising future. However, the company's dependence on subsidies and grants presents a potential risk, as reduced government support could impact growth. Efforts to diversify sales beyond EPA initiatives, especially through a joint venture with Generate Capital, show promise. However, investors should closely monitor the progress and look for increased orders from non-EPA sources.
Last Word
Regardless of the fiscal third-quarter 2024 results, current shareholders should maintain their holdings. New investors might consider adding BLBD to their watchlist and look for opportunities to buy during market pullbacks.
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Blue Bird's (BLBD) Q3 Earnings on Deck: Time to Buy the Stock?
Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD - Free Report) is slated to release fiscal third-quarter 2024 results on Aug 7, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is 50 cents a share on revenues of $330 million.
The earnings estimate for the fiscal third quarter of 2024 has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 13.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 12.14%.
For the current year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD’s revenues is pegged at $1.33 billion, implying a rise of 17.3% year over year. The consensus mark for the 2024 bottom line is $2.88 per share, suggesting a jump of 169.2%. In the trailing four quarters, this school bus manufacturer surpassed EPS estimates on all occasions, with the average earnings surprise being 92.36%.
Blue Bird Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Blue Bird Corporation price-eps-surprise | Blue Bird Corporation Quote
Earnings Whispers for Q3
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Blue Bird this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
BLBD has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping Q3 Results?
Blue Bird’s upcoming results are expected to reflect robust demand for school buses. The company ended the second quarter of fiscal 2024 with more than 5,900 units in its order backlog. The company also witnessed strong deliveries of electric-powered buses. It exited the last reported quarter with a backlog of around 500 electric school buses.
Favorable government policies are accelerating the adoption of electric buses. Key initiatives include the EPA’s Clean School Bus Program, offering $5 billion for five years (FY 2022-2026) for zero-emission buses, DOE loans and grants, California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project, New York’s Truck Voucher Incentive Program and Massachusetts’ Electric Vehicle Incentive Program. These are expected to have expanded Blue Bird’s market share in the alternative fuel market.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BLBD’s revenues from buses is pegged at $301 million, implying an uptick from $270.3 million in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for revenues from parts is $29 million, up from $24 million in the fiscal third quarter of 2023.
On the flip side, the company is bearing the brunt of high manufacturing costs and SG&A expenses and the trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. While this might put some pressure on margins, much of it is likely to be offset by strong sales.
Raised forecasts for fiscal 2024 make us optimistic about the upcoming results. BLBD upwardly raised fiscal 2024 revenue forecast to the band of $1.27-$1.32 billion from $1.15-$1.25 billion guided earlier. Adjusted EBITDA is now envisioned to be between $145 million and $165 million, higher than the prior projection of $120-$140 million.
Price and Valuation
Year to date, shares of Blue Bird have rallied roughly 73%, handily outperforming the industry, sector and S&P 500.
YTD Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Competitors like Lion Electric (LEV - Free Report) witnessed a drop of 66% on a year-to-date basis. EV pioneer Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) has moved down 16.5% during the same time period.
From a valuation standpoint, BLBD is trading at a forward 12-month sales multiple of 1.02, higher than its 5-year median but lower than the industry’s 1.66. The company has a Value Score of B.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Investor Considerations
This longstanding school bus manufacturer has ventured into innovative automotive technologies, including alternative fuels and electric vehicles. Beyond battery-electric buses, the company also employs gasoline and propane as alternative fuels, with propane gaining recognition and funding from the EPA for its ultra-low emissions. Blue Bird has successfully enhanced operations, increased production efficiency and driven new order growth, solidifying its leadership in alternative-powered buses. These efforts have led to a remarkable turnaround from an $11 million loss in the first quarter of fiscal 2023 to a $26 million profit in the last reported quarter.
BLBD's improved financial performance, manageable debt levels and strategic alignment with market trends indicate a promising future. However, the company's dependence on subsidies and grants presents a potential risk, as reduced government support could impact growth. Efforts to diversify sales beyond EPA initiatives, especially through a joint venture with Generate Capital, show promise. However, investors should closely monitor the progress and look for increased orders from non-EPA sources.
Last Word
Regardless of the fiscal third-quarter 2024 results, current shareholders should maintain their holdings. New investors might consider adding BLBD to their watchlist and look for opportunities to buy during market pullbacks.