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What to Expect From Louisiana-Pacific's (LPX) Q2 Earnings?

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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2024 results on Aug 7, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 35.4% and 7%, respectively. Its earnings and revenues increased 350% and 24% from the year-ago quarter’s period, respectively.

The company’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average of 18.6%.

Trend in Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Louisiana-Pacific’s second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.86, which moved down from $2.02 in the past 30 days. This suggests a whopping growth of 238.2% from 55 cents reported a year ago.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $802.35 million, indicating a rise from $611 million in the year-ago quarter.

Factors to Note

Louisiana-Pacific’s second-quarter earnings and sales are likely to have witnessed year-over-year growth on the back of increased penetration of Siding products in repair/remodel and roll out SmartSide products. The Siding unit, which comprised 49.9% of sales in the first quarter, has been witnessing solid demand despite persistent macroeconomic impacts and slowness in the housing industry. Siding is less sensitive to housing market cyclicality as more than 50% of Siding Solutions demand comes from other markets like sheds and repair and remodeling.

LPX expects Siding Solutions’ revenues to grow 20-25% from the year-ago period. It anticipates a consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $220-$240 million, up from $93 million reported a year ago. Of this, $95-$105 million is likely to be contributed by Siding, and $125-$135 million is likely to be added by OSB. Siding is likely to generate margins of 25% in the second quarter.

The consensus estimate for the Siding segment’s net sales is pegged at $392 million, indicating an improvement from the year-ago reported figure of $320 million. The same for OSB units is pegged at $341 million, implying a rise from $229 million in the prior year. The consensus mark for the South America segment’s net sales is pegged at $59 million, indicating growth from $53 million in the prior year.

The consensus mark for adjusted EBITDA for the Siding segment is pegged at $102 million, and that for OSB is pegged at $125 million.

Louisiana-Pacific’s efforts to gradually transform from a commodity producer to a more stable cash-generative business by increasing revenues and EBITDA mix are encouraging. It has been mainly focusing on three areas — increasing the efficiency of mills by improving productivity, run time and quality through overall equipment effectiveness or OEE initiatives; applying best practices to its supply chain; and optimizing infrastructure costs. However, lingering inflationary pressure, primarily for labor and freight, as well as a fluctuating lumber market, is a pressing concern.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Louisiana-Pacific this time around. A combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

LPX currently has an Earnings ESP of -3.10% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their respective quarters to be reported.

Dycom Industries (DY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.43% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

DY’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 7.4%. The company reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 30.2%.

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.38% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

ASPN’s earnings topped the consensus mark in all the last four quarters, with the average being 68.2%. Earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to grow 122.7% year over year.

Peer Release

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI - Free Report) reported impressive results for the second quarter of 2024. Both earnings and net sales surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The top and bottom lines, however, declined on a year-over-year basis due to lower contributions from Retail and Packaging businesses.

The company remains focused on its long-term expansion plans and improvement strategies amid a weaker environment and near-term softness in demand. These efforts are investments in automation and consolidating operations to eliminate redundancies, as well as reduce costs and enhance the profitability of its facilities.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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