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The Zacks Major Regional Banks will benefit from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts as the deposit costs come down and the industry-wide lending backdrop improves. Further, a decent economic expansion will boost the industry players’ net interest income (NII) and margins.
Business restructuring/expansion initiatives and digitization will offer support. Though weakening asset quality is likely to exert pressure on the financials to some extent, major banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., U.S. Bancorp and Truist Financial Corporation are worth betting on.
About the Industry
The Zacks Major Regional Banks industry includes the nation’s largest banks in terms of assets, with most operating globally. The financial performance of these banks largely depends on the nation’s economic health. As the banks are involved in several complex financial activities, they are required to meet the stringent regulations set by the Federal Reserve and other agencies. Apart from traditional banking services, which are the source of the net interest income (NII), major regional banks provide a wide array of other financial services and products to retail, corporate and institutional clients, both domestic and global. These include credit and debit cards, mortgage banking, wealth management and investment banking, among others. Therefore, a large revenue source for these banks is fees and commissions earned from these services.
4 Themes Influencing the Major Regional Banks Industry
Interest Rate Cuts: The Fed’s aggressive monetary policy since March 2022 has led the interest rates to touch a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5% to combat ‘sticky’ inflation. The inflation numbers have cooled down and the unemployment rates are rising. Hence, there is a clamor among the market participants that the central bank should not wait till the September FOMC meeting and cut the rates sooner as chances of a hard landing of the U.S. economy are rising. The CME Fedwatch tool shows the market participants are now projecting a 75.5% chance of a 50-basis point cut in interest rates in September, a drastic upward revision from a 13.2% chance a week ago.
The major regional banks thrive in a high interest rate regime, but the current rates are becoming a bane because of a massive jump in deposit costs. While banks reaped huge benefits in the form of higher NIM and NII during the initial phase of high rates, challenges related to slowing loan demand, increased funding costs and reduced liquidity became more apparent gradually. So, as the interest rates come down, banks will likely benefit from the fall/stabilization of deposit costs and a gradual improvement in the lending scenario. There will likely be near-term pain in the form of lower NII and NIM, but the industry players are expected to gain from reduced interest rates eventually.
Modest Improvement in Loan Demand: The central bank’s aggressive monetary policy lowered the demand for loans amid the risk of a severe economic downturn/recession. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections released in June indicates that the U.S. economy will slow down this year, growing at a rate of 2.1%. In 2023, the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 2.5%. While the high rates kept the borrowers on the sidelines for more than a year now, the Fed’s signal of interest rate cuts are likely to reverse the trend to some extent in 2024. The demand for loans is expected to tick up once the central bank starts cutting the rates.
Restructuring Initiatives: Major regional banks are undertaking strategic actions to expand into new avenues and lower their dependence on spread income. The business restructuring is essential for technological advancement and further domestic/global expansion to continue improving profitability. The industry players are constantly investing in artificial intelligence and other digital platforms and even partnering/acquiring providers of such services. Major regional banks are also aggressively expanding their footprint outside the United States and into Europe and Asia. Several industry players are re-evaluating their business structure to simplify operations and do away with unprofitable ones.
Weakening Asset Quality: For most of 2020, major regional banks built extra provisions to tide over unexpected defaults and payment delays due to the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 mayhem. This considerably hurt their financials. But with solid economic growth and support from government stimulus packages, banks began to release these reserves back into the income statement. Now, given the current macroeconomic headwinds, industry players are building additional reserves to counter any adverse fallout. While conservative lending policy and the resilience of borrowers helped banks to keep their asset quality manageable, several metrics are touching the pre-pandemic era levels. This signals the gradual deterioration of the industry players’ asset quality.
Zacks Industry Rank Suggests Solid Prospects
The Zacks Major Regional Banks industry is a 15-stock group within the broader Zacks Finance sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #35, which places it in the top 14% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates outperformance in the near term. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of an encouraging earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are gaining confidence in this group’s earnings growth potential. In the past year, the industry’s earnings estimates for the current year have been revised 6.1% upward.
Before we present some major bank stocks that are worth investing, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Outperforms the Sector and the S&P 500
The Zacks Major Regional Banks industry has widely outperformed both the S&P 500 composite and its sector over the past year. While stocks in this industry have collectively surged 22.8% over the period, the Zacks S&P 500 composite has jumped 18.7%, and the Zacks Finance sector has rallied 16.4%.
Industry's Valuation
One might get a good sense of the industry’s relative valuation by looking at its price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV), which is commonly used for valuing banks because of large variations in their earnings results from one quarter to the next.
The industry currently has a trailing 12-month P/TBV of 1.96X. This compares with the highest level of 2.48X, the lowest of 1.21X and the median of 1.93X over the past five years. The industry is trading at a huge discount compared with the market at large, as the trailing 12-month P/TBV for the S&P 500 composite is 14.53X.
As finance stocks typically have a lower P/TBV ratio, comparing major regional banks with the S&P 500 may not make sense to many investors. However, a comparison of the group’s P/TBV ratio with that of the broader sector ensures that the group is trading at a solid discount. The Zacks Finance sector’s trailing 12-month P/TBV came in at 4.2X. This is way above the Zacks Major Regional Banks industry’s ratio.
3 Major Regional Banks to Buy Right Away
JPMorgan: The largest U.S. bank (in terms of assets), JPMorgan has operations in more than 60 countries. The company is expected to keep benefiting from decent loan growth, strategic buyouts, business diversification efforts, a strong liquidity position and efforts to expand the branch network in new markets.
In May 2023, JPM took over the failed First Republic Bank for $10.6 billion. The deal immensely benefited the company’s financials in 2023 and helped record the biggest annual profits in its history.
This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) lender has been growing through on-bolt acquisitions, both domestic and international. These are expected to keep aiding its plan to diversify revenues and expand the fee income product suite and consumer bank digitally. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Also, JPMorgan is expanding its footprint in new regions and has a presence in 48 of 50 U.S. states. It intends to expand its retail branches further. The strategy continues to help the bank grab cross-selling opportunities by increasing its presence in the card and auto loan sectors. Also, the company launched its digital retail bank Chase in the U.K. in 2021 and plans to expand its reach across European Union countries.
With the resurgence of the investment banking (IB) business, JPMorgan is expected to leverage its leadership position to further expand its market share. The company will likely witness growth in IB fees going forward, driven by a healthy IB pipeline and active merger & acquisition (M&A) market.
With a market cap of $571.9 billion, JPMorgan is expected to continue benefiting from its scale and business expansion efforts. Also, analysts are bullish on the stock. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has moved almost 1% upward for 2024 in the past week. The stock has rallied 11.1% in the past six months.
U.S. Bancorp: Headquartered in Minneapolis, MN, U.S. Bancorp provides banking and investment services, principally operating in the Midwest and West regions of the United States. A solid business model and diverse revenue streams are likely to aid its financials.
USB has experienced solid growth in average loans and deposits in the past few years as it continued to expand and deepen relationships with current customers and acquire new customers and market share. The strengthening loan pipelines in the commercial and credit card space is expected to drive loan growth. Also, stabilizing deposit trends will continue to support deposit growth.
Organic growth and diverse revenue sources are key strengths of U.S. Bancorp. Management is encouraged by current trends in its client growth and penetration rates as evidenced by the continued strength in its fee revenue businesses. Hence, the company is well-positioned to improve its revenue trend backed by growth in fee income and NII.
U.S. Bancorp has completed several strategic acquisitions over the years, which have opened new markets to it and fortified existing markets. In 2022, it acquired MUFG Union Bank’s core regional banking franchise, expanding its branch network and enjoying greater access to digital banking tools. Such strategic buyouts and the ongoing investments in innovative product enhancements, services and people will strengthen the company’s fee-based businesses.
USB has a market cap of $66.1 billion. Analysts are bullish on this Zacks Rank #2 stock. In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised 1.8% upward for 2024. The stock has gained 2.2% over the past six months.
Truist Financial: Formed following the ‘merger of equals’ deal between BB&T Corp and SunTrust Banks, Truist Financial is one of the largest commercial banks in the United States. The company, based in Charlotte, NC, conducts business operations primarily through its bank subsidiary, Truist Bank, and a few other non-bank subsidiaries.
Growth in loans, higher interest rates and Truist Financial’s efforts to improve fee income are likely to keep aiding financials. It has been recording an improvement in NII due to decent loan demand and rising rates.
Management remains open to strategic business restructuring initiatives to bolster fee income. In sync with this, in May 2024, the company sold its remaining 80% stake in its insurance subsidiary — Truist Insurance Holdings. Subsequently, the bank undertook strategic balance sheet repositioning to support NII in the quarters ahead. These measures bolstered the bank's capitalization and liquidity profile.
Further, in February 2024, the company announced a deal to divest its asset-management subsidiary, Sterling Capital Management LLC. Earlier, this Zacks Rank #2 company had acquired Service Finance Company, which augmented its point-of-sale lending business. Driven by these restructuring efforts, Truist Financial is expected to witness growth in the top line.
TFC has a market cap of $56.4 billion. Analysts are bullish on the stock. In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised 3.8% upward for 2024. The stock has gained 2.2% over the past six months.
Why Haven’t You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.0 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +44.9%, +48.4% and +55.2% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Industry Outlook JPMorgan,U.S. Bancorp and Truist Financial
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – August 7, 2024 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM - Free Report) , U.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) and Truist Financial Corporation (TFC - Free Report) .
3 Stocks From the Prospering Major Regional Banks Industry
Industry: Major Banks – Regional
Link to article: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2316839/3-stocks-from-the-prospering-major-regional-banks-industry
The Zacks Major Regional Banks will benefit from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts as the deposit costs come down and the industry-wide lending backdrop improves. Further, a decent economic expansion will boost the industry players’ net interest income (NII) and margins.
Business restructuring/expansion initiatives and digitization will offer support. Though weakening asset quality is likely to exert pressure on the financials to some extent, major banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., U.S. Bancorp and Truist Financial Corporation are worth betting on.
About the Industry
The Zacks Major Regional Banks industry includes the nation’s largest banks in terms of assets, with most operating globally. The financial performance of these banks largely depends on the nation’s economic health. As the banks are involved in several complex financial activities, they are required to meet the stringent regulations set by the Federal Reserve and other agencies. Apart from traditional banking services, which are the source of the net interest income (NII), major regional banks provide a wide array of other financial services and products to retail, corporate and institutional clients, both domestic and global. These include credit and debit cards, mortgage banking, wealth management and investment banking, among others. Therefore, a large revenue source for these banks is fees and commissions earned from these services.
4 Themes Influencing the Major Regional Banks Industry
Interest Rate Cuts: The Fed’s aggressive monetary policy since March 2022 has led the interest rates to touch a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5% to combat ‘sticky’ inflation. The inflation numbers have cooled down and the unemployment rates are rising. Hence, there is a clamor among the market participants that the central bank should not wait till the September FOMC meeting and cut the rates sooner as chances of a hard landing of the U.S. economy are rising. The CME Fedwatch tool shows the market participants are now projecting a 75.5% chance of a 50-basis point cut in interest rates in September, a drastic upward revision from a 13.2% chance a week ago.
The major regional banks thrive in a high interest rate regime, but the current rates are becoming a bane because of a massive jump in deposit costs. While banks reaped huge benefits in the form of higher NIM and NII during the initial phase of high rates, challenges related to slowing loan demand, increased funding costs and reduced liquidity became more apparent gradually. So, as the interest rates come down, banks will likely benefit from the fall/stabilization of deposit costs and a gradual improvement in the lending scenario. There will likely be near-term pain in the form of lower NII and NIM, but the industry players are expected to gain from reduced interest rates eventually.
Modest Improvement in Loan Demand: The central bank’s aggressive monetary policy lowered the demand for loans amid the risk of a severe economic downturn/recession. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections released in June indicates that the U.S. economy will slow down this year, growing at a rate of 2.1%. In 2023, the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 2.5%. While the high rates kept the borrowers on the sidelines for more than a year now, the Fed’s signal of interest rate cuts are likely to reverse the trend to some extent in 2024. The demand for loans is expected to tick up once the central bank starts cutting the rates.
Restructuring Initiatives: Major regional banks are undertaking strategic actions to expand into new avenues and lower their dependence on spread income. The business restructuring is essential for technological advancement and further domestic/global expansion to continue improving profitability. The industry players are constantly investing in artificial intelligence and other digital platforms and even partnering/acquiring providers of such services. Major regional banks are also aggressively expanding their footprint outside the United States and into Europe and Asia. Several industry players are re-evaluating their business structure to simplify operations and do away with unprofitable ones.
Weakening Asset Quality: For most of 2020, major regional banks built extra provisions to tide over unexpected defaults and payment delays due to the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 mayhem. This considerably hurt their financials. But with solid economic growth and support from government stimulus packages, banks began to release these reserves back into the income statement. Now, given the current macroeconomic headwinds, industry players are building additional reserves to counter any adverse fallout. While conservative lending policy and the resilience of borrowers helped banks to keep their asset quality manageable, several metrics are touching the pre-pandemic era levels. This signals the gradual deterioration of the industry players’ asset quality.
Zacks Industry Rank Suggests Solid Prospects
The Zacks Major Regional Banks industry is a 15-stock group within the broader Zacks Finance sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #35, which places it in the top 14% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates outperformance in the near term. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s positioning in the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of an encouraging earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are gaining confidence in this group’s earnings growth potential. In the past year, the industry’s earnings estimates for the current year have been revised 6.1% upward.
Before we present some major bank stocks that are worth investing, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Outperforms the Sector and the S&P 500
The Zacks Major Regional Banks industry has widely outperformed both the S&P 500 composite and its sector over the past year. While stocks in this industry have collectively surged 22.8% over the period, the Zacks S&P 500 composite has jumped 18.7%, and the Zacks Finance sector has rallied 16.4%.
Industry's Valuation
One might get a good sense of the industry’s relative valuation by looking at its price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV), which is commonly used for valuing banks because of large variations in their earnings results from one quarter to the next.
The industry currently has a trailing 12-month P/TBV of 1.96X. This compares with the highest level of 2.48X, the lowest of 1.21X and the median of 1.93X over the past five years. The industry is trading at a huge discount compared with the market at large, as the trailing 12-month P/TBV for the S&P 500 composite is 14.53X.
As finance stocks typically have a lower P/TBV ratio, comparing major regional banks with the S&P 500 may not make sense to many investors. However, a comparison of the group’s P/TBV ratio with that of the broader sector ensures that the group is trading at a solid discount. The Zacks Finance sector’s trailing 12-month P/TBV came in at 4.2X. This is way above the Zacks Major Regional Banks industry’s ratio.
3 Major Regional Banks to Buy Right Away
JPMorgan: The largest U.S. bank (in terms of assets), JPMorgan has operations in more than 60 countries. The company is expected to keep benefiting from decent loan growth, strategic buyouts, business diversification efforts, a strong liquidity position and efforts to expand the branch network in new markets.
In May 2023, JPM took over the failed First Republic Bank for $10.6 billion. The deal immensely benefited the company’s financials in 2023 and helped record the biggest annual profits in its history.
This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) lender has been growing through on-bolt acquisitions, both domestic and international. These are expected to keep aiding its plan to diversify revenues and expand the fee income product suite and consumer bank digitally. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Also, JPMorgan is expanding its footprint in new regions and has a presence in 48 of 50 U.S. states. It intends to expand its retail branches further. The strategy continues to help the bank grab cross-selling opportunities by increasing its presence in the card and auto loan sectors. Also, the company launched its digital retail bank Chase in the U.K. in 2021 and plans to expand its reach across European Union countries.
With the resurgence of the investment banking (IB) business, JPMorgan is expected to leverage its leadership position to further expand its market share. The company will likely witness growth in IB fees going forward, driven by a healthy IB pipeline and active merger & acquisition (M&A) market.
With a market cap of $571.9 billion, JPMorgan is expected to continue benefiting from its scale and business expansion efforts. Also, analysts are bullish on the stock. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has moved almost 1% upward for 2024 in the past week. The stock has rallied 11.1% in the past six months.
U.S. Bancorp: Headquartered in Minneapolis, MN, U.S. Bancorp provides banking and investment services, principally operating in the Midwest and West regions of the United States. A solid business model and diverse revenue streams are likely to aid its financials.
USB has experienced solid growth in average loans and deposits in the past few years as it continued to expand and deepen relationships with current customers and acquire new customers and market share. The strengthening loan pipelines in the commercial and credit card space is expected to drive loan growth. Also, stabilizing deposit trends will continue to support deposit growth.
Organic growth and diverse revenue sources are key strengths of U.S. Bancorp. Management is encouraged by current trends in its client growth and penetration rates as evidenced by the continued strength in its fee revenue businesses. Hence, the company is well-positioned to improve its revenue trend backed by growth in fee income and NII.
U.S. Bancorp has completed several strategic acquisitions over the years, which have opened new markets to it and fortified existing markets. In 2022, it acquired MUFG Union Bank’s core regional banking franchise, expanding its branch network and enjoying greater access to digital banking tools. Such strategic buyouts and the ongoing investments in innovative product enhancements, services and people will strengthen the company’s fee-based businesses.
USB has a market cap of $66.1 billion. Analysts are bullish on this Zacks Rank #2 stock. In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised 1.8% upward for 2024. The stock has gained 2.2% over the past six months.
Truist Financial: Formed following the ‘merger of equals’ deal between BB&T Corp and SunTrust Banks, Truist Financial is one of the largest commercial banks in the United States. The company, based in Charlotte, NC, conducts business operations primarily through its bank subsidiary, Truist Bank, and a few other non-bank subsidiaries.
Growth in loans, higher interest rates and Truist Financial’s efforts to improve fee income are likely to keep aiding financials. It has been recording an improvement in NII due to decent loan demand and rising rates.
Management remains open to strategic business restructuring initiatives to bolster fee income. In sync with this, in May 2024, the company sold its remaining 80% stake in its insurance subsidiary — Truist Insurance Holdings. Subsequently, the bank undertook strategic balance sheet repositioning to support NII in the quarters ahead. These measures bolstered the bank's capitalization and liquidity profile.
Further, in February 2024, the company announced a deal to divest its asset-management subsidiary, Sterling Capital Management LLC. Earlier, this Zacks Rank #2 company had acquired Service Finance Company, which augmented its point-of-sale lending business. Driven by these restructuring efforts, Truist Financial is expected to witness growth in the top line.
TFC has a market cap of $56.4 billion. Analysts are bullish on the stock. In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised 3.8% upward for 2024. The stock has gained 2.2% over the past six months.
Why Haven’t You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.0 average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +44.9%, +48.4% and +55.2% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
See Stocks Free >>
Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.