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3 Real Estate Stocks to Buy on Falling Mortgage Rates
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The real estate sector is having a moderate 2024. The S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) has advanced 5.5% year to date as of Aug 6. This wasn’t the scenario in the first part of the year, with the sector declining till the end of June. However, optimism about the Fed introducing rate cuts in the economy and falling mortgage rates seem to have triggered a turnaround.
Buoyed by signals from the Fed, the benchmark 30-year average mortgage rate fell to 6.5% late last week, its lowest level since May 2023. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell further on Monday to 6.3%, its lowest since April 2023. The National Association of Realtors (“NAR”) expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.9% in its most recent quarterly forecast published in June. This is an upward revision from its previous forecast of 6.7%. NAR has also revised its forecast upward for the fourth quarter to 6.5-6.7%. They expect that the second half of 2024 will witness moderately lower mortgage rates, higher home sales and price stability.
However, almost three-quarters of the responders on CME’s FedWatch Tool currently expect a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed in September. This is a very recent and significant development. In fact, before the highly concerning numbers from the labor market were released last week, market participants were putting their money on only a 25 bps rate cut. Interest rates coming down sharply should bring mortgage rates even further. The market currently expects at least two instances of rate cuts till the end of the year.
Even in case of an unlikely recession, a higher inventory of homes would bring prices further down, thereby luring first-time buyers. One must, thus start considering parking part of their investments in promising stocks in the sector
Our Picks
We have narrowed our search to three real estate or related stocks that have good potential. These stocks have seen positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 60 days. Each of our picks carries either a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO - Free Report) is a real estate investment trust that invests in mortgage servicing rights, residential mortgage-backed securities and other financial assets.
TWO has an expected earnings growth rate of 257.1% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has surged 118.6% over the past 60 days. TWO currently holds a Zacks Rank #1.
Tanger Inc. (SKT - Free Report) is a real estate investment trust primarily investing in shopping centers.
SKT has an expected earnings growth rate of 5.1% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. SKT currently holds a Zacks Rank #2.
Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX - Free Report) is a mortgage real estate investment trust.
DX has an expected earnings growth rate of 205.3% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 33.3% over the past 60 days. DX currently holds a Zacks Rank #2.
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3 Real Estate Stocks to Buy on Falling Mortgage Rates
The real estate sector is having a moderate 2024. The S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) has advanced 5.5% year to date as of Aug 6. This wasn’t the scenario in the first part of the year, with the sector declining till the end of June. However, optimism about the Fed introducing rate cuts in the economy and falling mortgage rates seem to have triggered a turnaround.
Buoyed by signals from the Fed, the benchmark 30-year average mortgage rate fell to 6.5% late last week, its lowest level since May 2023. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell further on Monday to 6.3%, its lowest since April 2023. The National Association of Realtors (“NAR”) expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.9% in its most recent quarterly forecast published in June. This is an upward revision from its previous forecast of 6.7%. NAR has also revised its forecast upward for the fourth quarter to 6.5-6.7%. They expect that the second half of 2024 will witness moderately lower mortgage rates, higher home sales and price stability.
However, almost three-quarters of the responders on CME’s FedWatch Tool currently expect a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed in September. This is a very recent and significant development. In fact, before the highly concerning numbers from the labor market were released last week, market participants were putting their money on only a 25 bps rate cut. Interest rates coming down sharply should bring mortgage rates even further. The market currently expects at least two instances of rate cuts till the end of the year.
Even in case of an unlikely recession, a higher inventory of homes would bring prices further down, thereby luring first-time buyers. One must, thus start considering parking part of their investments in promising stocks in the sector
Our Picks
We have narrowed our search to three real estate or related stocks that have good potential. These stocks have seen positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 60 days. Each of our picks carries either a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO - Free Report) is a real estate investment trust that invests in mortgage servicing rights, residential mortgage-backed securities and other financial assets.
TWO has an expected earnings growth rate of 257.1% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has surged 118.6% over the past 60 days. TWO currently holds a Zacks Rank #1.
Tanger Inc. (SKT - Free Report) is a real estate investment trust primarily investing in shopping centers.
SKT has an expected earnings growth rate of 5.1% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. SKT currently holds a Zacks Rank #2.
Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX - Free Report) is a mortgage real estate investment trust.
DX has an expected earnings growth rate of 205.3% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has improved 33.3% over the past 60 days. DX currently holds a Zacks Rank #2.